DrStool Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 Over the past two weeks, each time the stock market takes a step up, each step seems a little shorter. At the same time they've been relentless, and each pullback has also been smaller. There's been very little momentum loss. The market is just trending relentlessly. As of 7 AM in New York, the ES, 24 hour continuous S&P 500 futures would need to break 4265 for any sign of change in that pattern. The trendline rises to 4275 in the opening hour and around 4285 at the close of regular trading. Breaking that line is the barest minimum for even a small pullback. A lot of top building would be necessary for a more meaningful reversal. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Swing Trade Screens – Buys Overwhelm Sells, It’s Late But One Sector Looks Ready to RollAugust 15, 2022 Yikes! August 15, 2022 Mildly Bullish Outlook for Gold Holds August 13, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 This rally simply looks like an upmove form a MAJOR bottom, like 2009 and so fourth. Sounds crazy, but this is like it looks and feels. The FED has it in its hands to kill this thing. Poopwell could just go ut and say: "OK, I think some got me wrong: We will raise rates further until we reach 2% inflation, a hike of at least 1.0% at the next meeting is quite likely". That would be enough. Furthermore they could REALLY drain 95 billion in Sep. The market right now front runs that they won't do that much. And finally they could also make an inter-meeting 2% hike. Guess non of that will be done by the FED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 Has Rule Number One been repealed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 The first three rules for living that I have learned from lurking for about two decades at the Stool: 1. Don't fight the Fed. 2. The trend is your friend, except at the end. 3. Never trust a fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 4. Every bear looks like 1974 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 5. When Doc is on vacation the market crashes (not valid anymore since he is on permanent vacation now) 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 6. Cramer is So Full of Crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, DrStool said: 6. Cramer is So Full of Crap The top is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 I was thinking… You know, like maybe I would like… Challenge the Fed to a fight? Good plan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreakOut Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 Shenanigan Graffiti "Where were thine in '29?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mkucstars Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 Well we weren't 30 trillion in debt... Keep spending. Stopping is sure death. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 This is the third leg of this phase of the rally. The two prior legs each lasted 6 days. This one is in the 6th. The previous legs were roughly +300 and +260. This one is plus 200 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 The top of the current channel is now at 4325. Gets to 4335 at the bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mkucstars Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 So we have a 3 legged bull? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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