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A Very Bearish Sign - 7/26/22

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Normally on this site, the daily views on a thread vary inversely with the market trend. The highest numbers coincide with bottoms, and the lowest with tops. I went back a year and yesterday's volume was the lowest in that time. No other trading day was close. So by that measure we're at the top of another rally that fools the majority. 

Although you couldn't tell by the hourly chart of the 24 hour ES, S&P fugutures. 

First I'll start with the 5 hour bars. Looks like a consolidation pounding away at the downtrend.. 

tvc_1c2f2e15d135281676b018b47a81ef7a.png

 

Zooming in to the two hour bars, looks like it might be a top, but the right side peaks and valleys are higher than the left. That's been a bullish tell for at least a dozen years. ' Course, I don't think we're in a bull market any more, Toto. So maybe the lower highs and lows on the right side of a pattern are no longer a requirement. 

tvc_a399625ffee4c4252e620c795e18c4fc.png

 

Finally, our usual look at the one hour bars because we focus on useless minutiae on this thread. Useless, that is, except for day traders. You don't need to be a genius to see that 3943 and 3938 are critical sport levels. If broken, they'll trigger a little selling. And that will really look like a top to most traders. 

Then they'll sell it down to 3924 and... the Fed resubstantiation dipshit rally will kick off. 

Meanwhile, resistance is up there at 3985 and 4013. If they don't clear those, nothing has happened yet. And if they do, the measured move objective would be around 4075. 

tvc_a399625ffee4c4252e620c795e18c4fc.png

Now, stay tuned for tomorrow's Fed Dog and Pony Circus, led by ringmaster, Jaysus Lord Powell. 

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… and another stinker:

Canada's Shopify (SHOP.TO)is laying off 10% of its workforce, or about 1000 employees, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing an internal memo.“

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/shopify-lay-off-10-workforce-wsj-2022-07-26/
 

Mail of the CEO to the employees:

https://news.shopify.com/changes-to-shopifys-team
 

To sum it up: He said:“ok, I‘m an idiot“. 😂🏻

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TLT critical here, a close above 119 would confirm an inverted SHS breakout. Seems like this can only be avoided by a surprise to the upside by the FED tommorow.

I think they hike 1.0 not 0.75.

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ARKK (that ETF from that MILF) is a proxy for liqui. Right now it is about to lose the uptrendline from the early June bottom. Note that it bottomed roughly 2 weeks before „the market“ bottomed in June…

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8 minutes ago, fxfox said:

ARKK (that ETF from that MILF) is a proxy for liqui. Right now it is about to lose the uptrendline from the early June bottom. Note that it bottomed roughly 2 weeks before „the market“ bottomed in June…

:unsure2:

I'm not sure "MILF" means the same thing in German that it does in 'merican.

:lol::lol::lol:

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11 minutes ago, Jimi said:

:unsure2:

I'm not sure "MILF" means the same thing in German that it does in 'merican.

:lol::lol::lol:

you have to imagine a photo of her when she was 38 😀

At least shes no Silvia Wadhwa 😇 It's lunchtime in the US soon, so no photo of her 😀

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OK. We now have a lower right shoulder with a lower low. The neckline of the formation is 3915, and the measured move distance is 85 points. That makes the target of a break 3830. Assuming it breaks.  Amazing how these things work out. 

 

ym0ut

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2 hours ago, fxfox said:

you have to imagine a photo of her when she was 38 😀

At least shes no Silvia Wadhwa 😇 It's lunchtime in the US soon, so no photo of her 😀

Fake photo. 

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Earnings after the close were not that good, but perception was. That means there is enough liqui right now. But that will change soon as per the leader of the pack 😇

Earnings „good“ perception bad, stock selling off =not enough liqui

Earnings „bad“, perception good, stock rises = enough liqui

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Maintenance problems with my new home today. I'm really behind the 8 ball getting reports out. Will hump it tomorrow morning. 

 

Ciao. 

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