DrStool Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Only hitting the low 90s here every day. But that's 10 degrees F above normal. As for the market it's not too bad, and not too good either. Here's the 2 hour bar perspective on the ES 24 hour S&P futures. Rangebound shit for the past two weeks. Has an upside very short term cycle projection of 3950. But there's some serious resistance at 3905 that it would need to clear first. I have my doubts. Here's the usual hourly bar look. They'd need to break 3835 to get anything going on the downside. Meanwhile, while the Fed is playing games about whether it will go 75 or 100 next week, the real interest rate market is already up 95 bp. The Fed just can't keep up. The fact that it's big fat you-know-what is dragging on the ground is holding it back. To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following: Catch a Falling Knife July 19, 2022 Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday July 18, 2022 Major Swing Cycles Align for an Up Phase July 18, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 now 35° in Antibes. that is 95° f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 apparently the stock market is even hotter. ho ho ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 THE FED's QT BELIEF/REALITY GAP Where is the QT???? There isnt any...or very little. The Fed is simply too afraid to do real QT. But it has convinced the market to believe that is it doing QT. Yet another false narrative....... Therefore there is a QT belief reality gap in the market. Rates are lower than they should be. This gap will close..the belief will evaporate over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 And they put it back at 3905, even before lunch...... So what was that AAPL Bull $hit about yesterday? Nothing as usual, and everything World-Wide goes Higher........... and the ECB is already planning more QE (Italy is the start) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 and from 3820 low yesterday to 3920 the next with hand over fist opening bell buying......... and to think its all about earnings all the way to the FED report next week..... where they announce interest rates and that they really, relly, rally are going to be tough on Inflation and QE >: AAPL and BA both pushed above their 150 Maginot lines..... >:: and to think that Martha Stewart went to jail over a paltry ~$50,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Jimbo said: THE FED's QT BELIEF/REALITY GAP Where is the QT???? There isnt any...or very little. The Fed is simply too afraid to do real QT. But it has convinced the market to believe that is it doing QT. Yet another false narrative....... Therefore there is a QT belief reality gap in the market. Rates are lower than they should be. This gap will close..the belief will evaporate over time. The balance sheet is shrinking but the QT rate 47.5 billion per month is barely a rounding her in the total size of the balance sheet. So it looks invisible but it's really draconian. Only reason they can get away with it now is because Treasury supply is very light this month. But as they say in Chicago wait till next month! 😊 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 and there is the RIP JOB through xx20 Maybe that is what that explosion at Hoover Dam was about....... >: AAPL.....bad news is a rip job higher and Stock Buy Backs just about to begin........ >:: TNX barely above 3%......Either nobody believes in higher rates or they will not/cannot be allowed go higher through Hook or Crook........ >::: QT (and/or Net QT world wide) is still a pipe dream at best (Just ask Japan-ECB) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: The balance sheet is shrinking but the QT rate 47.5 billion per month is barely a rounding her in the total size of the balance sheet. So it looks invisible but it's really draconian. Only reason they can get away with it now is because Treasury supply is very light this month. But as they say in Chicago wait till next month! 😊 Yes, but wouldn‘t you say that the ECB is some kind of a wild card? What they announced late June is like an inherent QE. The German 10 year (Bund) did fall from 1.77 to 1.07 within 2-3 weeks, that‘s massive. Sure, the FED leads and is the most important CB‘s, but I‘m not sure that the role of the ECB and BoJ regarding the global financial system isn‘t a bit bigger than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 53 minutes ago, fxfox said: Yes, but wouldn‘t you say that the ECB is some kind of a wild card? What they announced late June is like an inherent QE. The German 10 year (Bund) did fall from 1.77 to 1.07 within 2-3 weeks, that‘s massive. Sure, the FED leads and is the most important CB‘s, but I‘m not sure that the role of the ECB and BoJ regarding the global financial system isn‘t a bit bigger than we think. The ECB and Japan, can/will/continue to out QE the FED. No turning back for them. No turning back for the FED (more QE), and that will be "even more" obvious by the Sept. meeting (Nov?), as if their actions over the last DECADE have shown.....They Will Talk, and Give Speeches they will also be paid now and later (Bernake/Congress Insider Trading) for what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 What a rally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, Jimi said: What a rally. seems 100 points SPX is "Normal" ya know, "Bear Market Rally".......... >: AAPL, BA, NVDA (Pelosi Special) 150 or No Bust >:: 0% interest rates/QE are on everyone's mind (The FED will be there, too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, fxfox said: Yes, but wouldn‘t you say that the ECB is some kind of a wild card? What they announced late June is like an inherent QE. The German 10 year (Bund) did fall from 1.77 to 1.07 within 2-3 weeks, that‘s massive. Sure, the FED leads and is the most important CB‘s, but I‘m not sure that the role of the ECB and BoJ regarding the global financial system isn‘t a bit bigger than we think. Well, I don't really understand the point of your post. What is a wild card? The ECB and BoJ are much bigger than the Fed. I cover them with respect to their impact on the US markets via the Fed's custodial holdings. For my current thinking in depth may I suggest: Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday July 18, 2022 Major Swing Cycles Align for an Up Phase July 18, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12,2022 Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28,2022 I haven't had any short sale recommendations for several weeks. Clearly, the neither the liquidity data nor the technical data have been bearish in weeks, and I have said so, loud and clear. So I'm not sure why anyone would find fault with my analysis. I've been warning about this bear market rally for almost a month. And for those arguing that the Fed isn't tight, that's just wrong. You must view Fed actions in the context of where it is now, vs pumping 100-200 billion per month into the market, and in terms of what the market needs to absorb Treasury supply. We're in the middle of the worst bond bear market in history. And the bear market in stocks has only completed its first leg. If that. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 9 hours ago, DrStool said: Has an upside very short term cycle projection of 3950. But there's some serious resistance at 3905 that it would need to clear first. I have my doubts. Here's the usual hourly bar look. They'd need to break 3835 to get anything going on the downside. I mean, what the fucking bloody hell do I have to do to get any credit for my work. Do you know how many subscribers I have? Not enough to listen to people whine and complain about a goddamn bear market rally. Take what the goddamn fucking shitass market gives you. It's not rocket science. Do the TA. That's all. The euro turned today. That's a sign that investment flows reversed, at least for the short run. Some traders believe, rightly or wrongly, that the ECB will get tighter relative to where it has been, and relative to the Fed. That will attract some flows back to eurozone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 So, yes. I consider it. I consider as much as humanly possible for one person working for a handful of subscribers. I've been publishing for 22 years, doing a great job of calling the market. And I get no respect. But I'm insane. So I keep doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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