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Not Too Bad Here 7/19/22

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Only hitting the low 90s here every day. But that's 10 degrees F above normal. 

As for the market it's not too bad, and not too good either.  Here's the 2 hour bar perspective on the ES 24 hour S&P futures. Rangebound shit for the past two weeks. Has an upside very short term cycle projection of 3950. But there's some serious resistance at 3905 that it would need to clear first. I have my doubts. 


tvc_dcfa821da9f43756897f16ee6d3fbad0.png


Here's the usual hourly bar look. They'd need to break 3835 to get anything going on the downside.

tvc_027dc6a98941f11e8c6ea9b074666a3c.png

Meanwhile, while the Fed is playing games about whether it will go 75 or 100 next week, the real interest rate market is already up 95 bp. The Fed just can't keep up.  The fact that it's big fat you-know-what is dragging on the ground is holding it back. 

tvc_8dff7b9d29517fa44c8f60385afbc5b5.png

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THE FED's QT BELIEF/REALITY GAP

Where is the QT????

There isnt any...or very little.

The Fed is simply too afraid to do real QT.

But it has convinced the market to believe that is it doing QT.

Yet another false narrative.......

Therefore there is a QT belief reality gap in the market.

Rates are lower than they should be.

This gap will close..the belief will evaporate over time.

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And they put it back at 3905, even before lunch......

So what was that AAPL Bull $hit about yesterday?

Nothing as usual, and everything World-Wide goes Higher...........

and the ECB is already planning more QE (Italy is the start)

 

 

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and from 3820 low yesterday to 3920 the next

with hand over fist opening bell buying.........

and to think its all about earnings all the way to the FED report next week.....

where they announce interest rates and that they really, relly, rally are going

to be tough on Inflation and QE

>: AAPL and BA both pushed above their 150 Maginot lines.....

>:: and to think that Martha Stewart went to jail over a paltry ~$50,000

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2 hours ago, Jimbo said:

THE FED's QT BELIEF/REALITY GAP

Where is the QT????

There isnt any...or very little.

The Fed is simply too afraid to do real QT.

But it has convinced the market to believe that is it doing QT.

Yet another false narrative.......

Therefore there is a QT belief reality gap in the market.

Rates are lower than they should be.

This gap will close..the belief will evaporate over time.

The balance sheet is shrinking but the QT rate 47.5 billion per month is barely a rounding her in the total size of the balance sheet. So it looks invisible but it's really draconian. Only reason they can get away with it now is because Treasury supply is very light this month. But as they say in Chicago wait till next month! 😊

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and there is the RIP JOB through xx20

Maybe that is what that explosion at Hoover Dam was about.......

>: AAPL.....bad news is a rip job higher and Stock Buy Backs just about to begin........

>:: TNX barely above 3%......Either nobody believes in higher rates

or they will not/cannot be allowed go higher through Hook or Crook........

>::: QT (and/or Net QT world wide) is still a pipe dream at best (Just ask Japan-ECB)

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

The balance sheet is shrinking but the QT rate 47.5 billion per month is barely a rounding her in the total size of the balance sheet. So it looks invisible but it's really draconian. Only reason they can get away with it now is because Treasury supply is very light this month. But as they say in Chicago wait till next month! 😊

Yes, but wouldn‘t you say that the ECB is some kind of a wild card? What they announced late June is like an inherent QE. The German 10 year (Bund) did fall from 1.77 to 1.07 within 2-3 weeks, that‘s massive.

Sure, the FED leads and is the most important CB‘s, but I‘m not sure that the role of the ECB and BoJ regarding the global financial system isn‘t a bit bigger than we think.

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53 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Yes, but wouldn‘t you say that the ECB is some kind of a wild card? What they announced late June is like an inherent QE. The German 10 year (Bund) did fall from 1.77 to 1.07 within 2-3 weeks, that‘s massive.

Sure, the FED leads and is the most important CB‘s, but I‘m not sure that the role of the ECB and BoJ regarding the global financial system isn‘t a bit bigger than we think.

The ECB and Japan, can/will/continue to out QE the FED.  No turning back for them.

No turning back for the FED (more QE), and that will be "even more" obvious by the Sept. meeting (Nov?),

as if their actions over the last DECADE have shown.....They Will Talk, and Give Speeches

they will also be paid now and later (Bernake/Congress Insider Trading) for what they are doing.

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10 minutes ago, Jimi said:

What a rally.

seems 100 points SPX is "Normal"

ya know, "Bear Market Rally"..........

>: AAPL, BA, NVDA (Pelosi Special) 150 or No Bust

>:: 0% interest rates/QE are on everyone's mind (The FED will be there, too)

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1 hour ago, fxfox said:

Yes, but wouldn‘t you say that the ECB is some kind of a wild card? What they announced late June is like an inherent QE. The German 10 year (Bund) did fall from 1.77 to 1.07 within 2-3 weeks, that‘s massive.

Sure, the FED leads and is the most important CB‘s, but I‘m not sure that the role of the ECB and BoJ regarding the global financial system isn‘t a bit bigger than we think.

Well, I don't really understand the point of your post. What is a wild card? The ECB and BoJ are much bigger than the Fed. I cover them with respect to their impact on the US markets via the Fed's custodial holdings. 

For my current thinking in depth may I suggest: 

Clearly, the neither the liquidity data nor the technical data have been bearish in weeks, and I have said so, loud and clear.  

So I'm not sure why anyone would find fault with my analysis. I've been warning about this bear market rally for almost a month. 

And for those arguing that the Fed isn't tight, that's just wrong. You must view Fed actions in the context of where it is now, vs pumping 100-200 billion per month into the market, and in terms of what the market needs to absorb Treasury supply. We're in the middle of the worst bond bear market in history. And the bear market in stocks has only completed its first leg. If that. 

Cheers! 

 

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9 hours ago, DrStool said:

Has an upside very short term cycle projection of 3950. But there's some serious resistance at 3905 that it would need to clear first. I have my doubts. 


tvc_dcfa821da9f43756897f16ee6d3fbad0.png


Here's the usual hourly bar look. They'd need to break 3835 to get anything going on the downside.

I mean, what the fucking bloody hell do I have to do to get any credit for my work. Do you know how many subscribers I have? Not enough to listen to people whine and complain about a goddamn bear market rally. 

Take what the goddamn fucking shitass market gives you.  It's not rocket science. Do the TA. That's all.  

The euro turned today. That's a sign that investment flows reversed, at least for the short run. Some traders believe, rightly or wrongly, that the ECB will get tighter relative to where it has been, and relative to the Fed. That will attract some flows back to eurozone.  

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So, yes. I consider it. I consider as much as humanly possible for one person working for a handful of subscribers. 

I've been publishing for 22 years, doing a great job of calling the market. And I get no respect. But I'm insane. So I keep doing it.  

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