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What We Think About Gold 7/13/22

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Meanwhile, stocks are set up in a maximum indecision pattern, smack in the middle of their range of the past 3 weeks. They're waiting for the bad news on CPI, which everyone knows will be bad. So it should all be "priced in," right? 

Wall Street loves that term. It needs jargon like that to create stories to sell its wares. But like most of what Wall Street says, it's absolute bullshit. The market doesn't "price in." The market as a whole is a measure of systemic liquidity as reflected in the price trend. Nothing more, nothing less. If you want to believe the nonsense about the market being a discounting mechanism, be my guest. But it sure won't help you trade. Focusing on the price patterns on the charts will. 

So for today, we wait and see what the newsnoise reaction will be. Then, one way or another, the market will get back to tracking the trend of liquidity. 

Here's the hourly look on the 24 hour ES S&P fuguetures. Perfect equilibrium. Everything is priced in right? Well, if the initial knee jerk is up, they need to end an hour, any hour, above 3840 to have any chance to extend the rally back to the trend resistance area around 3870. Otherwise we're going lower today. 

How much lower? I'd look for those sport lines around 3790 for starters.  


For the longer view that concerns most of us, see Advantage Bulls, But It’s Over If This One Thing Happens This Week

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The 13 week bill rate has risen 70 bp starting since one week after the Fed raised the FF target in mid June. 


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On Q opening bell buying.......

I guess it all goes Green.......Nothing To SEE Here......again

The FED still has them's back

>: TNX above 3, will that even stick

regardless of the phony CPI "print" of only 9

>:: SPX @3780, which "20" hits next?

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