DrStool Posted July 11, 2022 Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 Today is 7-11 or doubles day. Just FYI. It's also a day where the bulls, if at first they don't succeed, try, try, try again. This is unlike the bears who, when things aren't going their way, throw up their hands in despair and disgust, cover their shorts, spit over their shoulders, and walk away. Which, by the way, is the way I think it should be done. As for today, we have the makings of another uptrend channel on the ES, 24 hour S&P fuguetures hourly chart. 3860 has also been confirmed as a short term sport level. If it hold in the pre market, Monday should be an up day. Likewise, if the bulls try but fail to break 3890 on the upside, and then the thing rolls over and drops below 3860, the second half of the day could be all bear. That's how the intraday picture. For the longer view that concerns most of us, see Advantage Bulls, But It’s Over If This One Thing Happens This Week. To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following: Advantage Bulls, But It’s Over If This One Thing Happens This Week July 9, 2022. Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 For Swing Trades this Week, It’s Politics As Unusual July 5, 2022 Gold’s Worst Projections Are Happening July 6, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022 Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday June 13, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 Meanwhile, the BTC boys have given up the ghost today. The ghost of a rally that is. They couldn't even get back to trend resistance at 22,000, let along clear it. Now they're threatening to break that critical sport level at 19k. But the big one is 17,600. If that gives way, Crash City, Babeeeeee! We're now looking at a one year cycle projection of 9-12k. And the immutable long term conventional measured move target of 5000 below zero. Looking at bond yields, the 10 year has a projection of 3.26 on the hourly chart. For more on the big picture, see Recession? What Recession? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted July 11, 2022 Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 Euro and Japanese Yen just getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 11, 2022 Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 Parrot Tea It's going lower. The conventional measured move implication on the weekly chart is $0.80-0.90. The pattern spanned 5 years, so don't expect this overnight. But the first half of next year would be a reasonable guess. On a monthly bar chart, the measured move implication also appears to be around 0.80. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 26 minutes ago, sandy beach said: Euro and Japanese Yen just getting crushed. Dollar shortage. It will get worse as the Fed withdraws dollars from the system, until it stops and reverses, or until ECB and BoJ also start draining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 So now we have a downtrend channel AND a 5 day cycle projection. 3800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 11, 2022 Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 40 minutes ago, DrStool said: Dollar shortage. It will get worse as the Fed withdraws dollars from the system, until it stops and reverses, or until ECB and BoJ also start draining. … and if more Oil will be traded in Non-USD currency, which will of course lead to more war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 11, 2022 Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 Sooner or later the wheels will come off. It is simply too much to handle. Oil, war, inflation, threat of disintegration in Europe, Yen crisis, new block structure in the making and whatnot… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 52 minutes ago, fxfox said: Sooner or later the wheels will come off. It is simply too much to handle. Oil, war, inflation, threat of disintegration in Europe, Yen crisis, new block structure in the making and whatnot… All irrelevant. Only liquidity matters. It's tightening, and indeed, the wheels have been, and continue to be, coming off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 5 day cycle projection rises to 3830. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 EUR/USD 1.004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 Get a load of interest rates! Fed still playing ketchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted July 11, 2022 Report Share Posted July 11, 2022 not sure which is a worse omen....The Dollar screaming higher or the lack of interest/participation on this website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted July 12, 2022 Report Share Posted July 12, 2022 8 hours ago, DrStool said: 5 day cycle projection rises to 3830. Just hit 3830 in the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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