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S&P Fuguetures Hit the Wall 7/8/22

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I want to start with the 5 hour bars of the ES, 24 hour S&P fuguetures so that you can see just how significant this resistance area is. It will be no easy task to traverse the 40 points (1%) between the high of 3910 hit overnight, and the upper resistance band around 3950.

That doesn't mean that it definitely won't get through, but if it does, it would mean that the next target of the rally would be around 4075. If it fails, the downtrend would be confirmed. 

yhlym

Drilling down to the usual one hour view, you see the repulsion of the first attempt, and now, at 6 AM NY time, the testing of the bottom of the very short term hourly uptrend channel. 3875 is the critical sport area. If it holds, they'll try again to break out later this morning. If it fails, then the next move would be a pullback to the next sport level around 3860. Breaking that would give the bears some impetus. 

So we wait and see who wins this today. 

yhlzv

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Here's the 10 year Treasury yield on a  continuous hourly 24 hour basis. If it drops under 2.975 then another pullback to around 2.90 would be likely. But whether it holds here, or drops back, it's likely to be headed higher after that.  

yhm5s


I don't think that the Bureau of Liar Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls report will reflect the massive strength in June withholding tax collections. Most of the gain in taxes came after the jobs survey date of the 12th of the month.

In addition, the first release of the jobs report is always a crapshoot, due to the statistical massagery that the BLS applies. That includes the ridiculous seasonal adjustment that is based on 5 years of past data and a guess at 5 years of future data that doesn't exist yet. Then there's the absurd business birth/death adjustment, that's another made up bunch of crap. In truth, the BLS has no clue how many jobs were created.

After the first release they fit and refit the current data 7 times over 5 years before finalizing it. Eventually, their graph fits reality. But the current release is simply random junk for market masturbation. 

But the truth is that job creation for June as a whole was very strong. Tax collections don't lie. And this will show up in later reports as the BLS gradually retrofits the data to reality. The bond market is headed for another unpleasant surprise in the months ahead. 

Recession? What Recession?

 

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4 hours ago, DrStool said:

3875 is the critical sport area. If it holds, they'll try again to break out later this morning. If it fails, then the next move would be a pullback to the next sport level around 3860. Breaking that would give the bears some impetus. 

Still applies. If 3860 not broken, bulls still have the ball. And watch out on the upside if they clear 3911. 

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So lets see.......

Low in the morning, perma bid higher rest of the day - all week long........

Rates cuts are right around the corner......

>: all news and reports "real or otherwise" means bid it all higher.......

 

 

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Still applies. If 3860 not broken, bulls still have the ball. And watch out on the upside if they clear 3911. 

Was that a throwover sort of deal there briefly above 3911?

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Seems like everyone and their dog believes that the ultimate price low is already in. As reasons they quote the historic low consumer sentiment and the put/call ratio. It is also said that we have already seen the peak in inflation and therefore the FED will not hike much further.

Quite weird is the following: People right now say they have no fear of losing their job, but when asked how they would rate the outlook of their personal financial conditions they say:“very bad“. Something doesn‘t fit here…

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3 hours ago, Jimi said:

Was that a throwover sort of deal there briefly above 3911?

Chart is bullish until proven otherwise. 

Ciao and have a great fan de semen.   

Also, planning a trip on the Shaman de fur Pro vonce to Entrevoe on Sunday. 

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Wouldn‘t be surprised to see this happening at a big bank pretty soon:

 

There is turmoil in the bond pits, normally some major bank should blow up. People have to realize that the real damage was done to bonds, not stocks. 

Stocks is for J6P. Bonds are the market that counts, stocks are a sideshow.

 

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