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US Stocks Pre Holiday Fireworks and Custard Sale - 6/30/22

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The Froth of July Weekend is here! Time to sell a bait. Dance to the moo sick. 

The overnight selloff leaves us with a 5 day cycle projection range of 3740-3780. As of 7 AM in New York, the 24 hour ES S&P fuguetures are sitting on a sport line at 3760, smack in the middle of the projected range. If this line gives way, then the next sport level is around 3730 this morning. If that breaks they'll probably do the slinky thing, every 20 points or so down to 3660, where there's a fireworks and custard stand. It's custard's last stand before the holiday. 

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As of 10 AM in New York. The top of this beautiful downtrend channel will be at 3765. ES needs to get above that line to break this trend and start another dead cat resurrection. 

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In a wrinkle that I didn't expect, the 10 year Treasury yield has broken the uptrend channel. There's a big end of month settlement today. I would expect this price rally/yield decline to be reversed.

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We're cusping. 

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Cusping is when the market doesn't go up, and goes down instead, or vice versa.  

It's like when I'm dating two nice women and one of them tells me, you must decide between me and the other one. 

And I say, "But I can't decide"  

And she says, 

Alrighty then.  

 

 

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OK, so the downtrend channel is broken, but I think we're just in a weak flat up phase. If they don't clear 3795, we'll tank later. 

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The hard downmove was due to settlement and the upmove is due to EOQ window dressing and some shorts locking in profits so that they appear on their books.

The downmove was real, the upmove is just technical. That‘s my interpretation.

When I look around many think that the high in rates is in. We will see…

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Cusping is when the market doesn't go up, and goes down instead, or vice versa.  

It's like when I'm dating two nice women and one of them tells me, you must decide between me and the other one. 

And I say, "But I can't decide"  

And she says, 

Alrighty then.  

 

 

Ahhhh, the appearance of freewill. "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."

 

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