DrStool Posted June 22, 2022 Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 Back from a 3 day weekend yesterday, which I, living in France, had no clue was a 3 day weekend. Mea culpa, I shoulda! But stocks were rejuvenated and celebrated. Apparently, traders ate too much, because this morning the market has taken a big old dump. The breakout from that nice 3-day base has been reversed, but so far, only to a classic return to the scene of the crime. If bulls can hold their ground here, we may yet see more upside. But if this drops back under 3685 on the ES S&P continuous 24 hour fuguetures, bears' ball. The zone of contention will be between there and 3750. No decision either way until that range is busted. Meanwhile the BTC/SPX tight correlation continues in June. Here's the hourly chart. You can see on the daily chart that this thing still has plenty of downside. There's still an unmet short term cycle projection of 16,500, and the one year cycle now points to 7500. I have to wonder if the stonks/crapto correlation will hold if that happens. Of course in the long run, we know that this POC is worthless, with a conventional measured move target of 5000 below zero. The bond market doesn't look like it will do too much better. The 20 year Treasury bond ETF has a 3-4 year cycle projection of 85-90, and a conventional measured move target of 50-55. Obviously, this has major implications for the stock market. You too can follow how all that works, here . I will show you and tell you exactly how the major forces of macro liquidity move not just the bond market, but stocks as well. Liquidity analysis sets the context for technical analysis. It helps us to narrow the focus of our chart reading to the outcomes that are most likely, given the circumstances. To understand the big picture, check out the following: We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022 Is There Life on Mars, or in the Precious Metals? June 22, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Tank Gawt We’re Not a Long-Only Entity, Poor Bastids June 20, 2022 Watch Out For a V Bottom June 19, 2022 Gold Stares Into the Abyss and Doesn’t Like What It Sees June 14, 2022 Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday June 13, 2022 The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May June 2, 2022 Quantitative Tightening is Here, and the Effect Will Be Devastating June 1, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted June 22, 2022 Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 crime pays end of story >: Herbert is talking to the US Senate........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 22, 2022 Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 EMA200 hourly at 3792 kissed from below, now going down somewhat, but once broken LOA. A huge upday today would not be good, would mean follow thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted June 22, 2022 Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, fxfox said: EMA200 hourly at 3792 kissed from below, now going down somewhat, but once broken LOA. A huge upday today would not be good, would mean follow thru. What am I doing wrong FX? I'm seeing the EMA200 at 3639.55. If so the S&P500 bounced off of it? EDIT: Oh I missed that you were talking about the hourly. Thanks! Didn't notice that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 Today's market brought to you by the fine people of the PPT, your tax dollars hard at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 PXL_20220622_155646277.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 22, 2022 Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 2 hours ago, sandy beach said: What am I doing wrong FX? I'm seeing the EMA200 at 3639.55. If so the S&P500 bounced off of it? EDIT: Oh I missed that you were talking about the hourly. Thanks! Didn't notice that. Yes I was talking about the hourly on the ES. We see very nicely on your weekly chart that we are right at the EMA200, a reaction to the upside from here would be absolutely normal, a failure here would possibly mean an acceleration of the downmove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 22, 2022 Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: Do you have your „Rien ne va plus!“-Shirt on? 😂✌🏻 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted June 22, 2022 Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 no respectable frenchman has lunch at the workdesk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 2 hours ago, BurntOnce said: no respectable frenchman has lunch at the workdesk. I was in Monte Carlo, Monaco. 6 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2022 Higher low, higher high, weak close. Trouble with trend resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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