DrStool Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Fete de la Musique That's right, today is the day we'll face the music, my bear friends. Although I suspect that in the end, we'll be clapping and singing a song. Today, we listen. Over the past two days while the market was closed in the US, the 24 hour ES S&P 500 fuguetures have emerged from a small but potentially powerful base. As of 5 AM ET, they are threatening to break important resistance at 3750. If successful, they should be able to move quickly to 3790, where the bears will join the battle in full force, methinks. On the other hand, if they don't clear 3750, then look for a pullback to the low around 3636. Things would get very interesting if that broke. Meanwhile, BTC is leading the way, but only because it trades 24/7. It has emerged from a base with a 5 day cycle projection of 22,222.22222. OK, I zagerate. 😊 But the projection is in that range, give or take a few hunnert. Also the base pattern breakout has a conventional measured move target of around 24,000. But if it clears 21,400, that would imply 25,000, etc. etc. etc. This is the 2 hour bar chart with the ES overlaid. As you can see, they have moved virtually in lockstep for the whole month of June. If BTC coughs it up and drops back below 20k, the bears will be back in charge, both for Crapto, and stonks. But for now, this looks bullish. The move is less impressive on the daily chart, where it rebounded from trend support. Trend resistance may show up around 23k today. If they clear that, the next target would be 25k over the next couple of days. If they don't clear 23k, then you can see where it's headed, maybe sooner, rather than later. Meanwhile, the 10 year Treasury yield had what the Wall Street shill crowd called a record pullback. But when we look at a weekly chart, it does not look so for mee dob, as we say here in le fronsay. In fact, it is still very much threatening to break out of this massive base pattern, 11 years in the making. Its conventional measured move target would be 6%. It wasn't hard to see this major turn take shape. I've been warning Liquidity Trader subscribers to stay the hell away from bonds, and sell em if you got em, since August 2020. You too can follow along right here. I will show you and tell you exactly how the major forces of macro liquidity move not just the bond market, but stocks as well. Liquidity analysis sets the context for technical analysis. It helps us to narrow the focus of our chart reading to the outcomes that are most likely, given the circumstances. To understand the big picture, check out the following: Swing Trade Screens – Tank Gawt We’re Not a Long-Only Entity, Poor Bastids June 20, 2022 Watch Out For a V Bottom June 19, 2022 Gold Stares Into the Abyss and Doesn’t Like What It Sees June 14, 2022 Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday June 13, 2022 The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May June 2, 2022 Quantitative Tightening is Here, and the Effect Will Be Devastating June 1, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Two pals & I played Chez Wayne’s inaugural Fete de la Musique the year it opened. Across the way from Palais de la Justice. That was over three decades ago. Man… where’s the time go? Meanwhile, sitting on a plane waiting to taxi & fly home. Croatia is a spectacular country to visit. May I be fortunate to do so again some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 We bounced off the EMA 200 weekly. That EMA is important (it is the same as that 900 daily MA from K-Wave Rider, who was a genius chart reader) and it contained every downmove since the 2009 bottom (even during Covid crash you would have gone long at 2650, which was not THE bottom, but fair enough). So all those who do not believe that we gonna get a raging bear will (if not to say MUST) go long right here right now. Furthermore we are very Dover Sole, put/call is at an extreme, sentiment is bearish and Hedge Funds are as short as they were last time in 2009. The „market“ will collect that free money from the Hedgies. So brutal and quick bear market rally ahead then death dive into August. Just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Jimi said: Two pals & I played Chez Wayne’s inaugural Fete de la Musique the year it opened. Across the way from Palais de la Justice. That was over three decades ago. Man… where’s the time go? Meanwhile, sitting on a plane waiting to taxi & fly home. Croatia is a spectacular country to visit. May I be fortunate to do so again some day. As for Croatia, it's the poor man's California. It's why I spent so much time there. 😄😄😄 And the Croats make the French look like amateurs in the Art of Cafe Culture. I love that country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 This move has clearance to 3780-90. The 5 day cycle projection is 3790. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 30 minutes ago, DrStool said: We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet „… is likely to get crushed, battered, steamrolled, destroyed, decimated, and cooked“. You are a true philosopher Doc 😂 , but I miss „waterboarded“ and „cruzified“ or does that come later? 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 5 day cycle projection now 3825. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 However, 2-3 day cycle projection 3785-90. That said, if they get there, they should have enough mo to push to 3825. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Markets that often move 2-3% per day in both directions are not normal. It's a sign of being liquidity starved. The implications of this rally are obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 5 day cycle projection ends at 3800. From Fete de la Musique I bid you... Ug... https://photos.app.goo.gl/5zmdNE3fbuai3m6W7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, DrStool said: From Fete de la Musique I bid you... Ug... https://photos.app.goo.gl/5zmdNE3fbuai3m6W7 C‘est une catastrophe! But the Fremch have good Electro Bands too, like Daft Punk: Epic track, fantastique! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 Doc, that you know Hall & Oates personally is just BIG! They are one of the heroes of my early youth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 21, 2022 Report Share Posted June 21, 2022 What will PepeMILFHunter69 do now? Has he sold everything at the kiss of the EMA200 hourly from below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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