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Today is the Day We Face the Musique 6/21/22

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Fete de la Musique

That's right, today is the day we'll face the music, my bear friends. Although I suspect that in the end, we'll be clapping and singing a song. Today, we listen. 

Over the past two days while the market was closed in the US, the 24 hour ES S&P 500 fuguetures have emerged from a small but potentially powerful base. As of 5 AM ET, they are threatening to break important resistance at 3750. If successful, they should be able to move quickly to 3790, where the bears will join the battle in full force, methinks. 

On the other hand, if they don't clear 3750, then look for a pullback to the low around 3636. 

Things would get very interesting if that broke. 

image.png

Meanwhile, BTC is leading the way, but only because it trades 24/7. It has emerged from a base with a 5 day cycle projection of 22,222.22222. OK, I zagerate. 😊 But the projection is in that range, give or take a few hunnert. 

Also the base pattern breakout has a conventional measured move target of around 24,000. But if it clears 21,400, that would imply 25,000, etc. etc. etc. This is the 2 hour bar chart with the ES overlaid. As you can see, they have moved virtually in lockstep for the whole month of June.  If BTC coughs it up and drops back below 20k, the bears will be back in charge, both for Crapto, and stonks. 

But for now, this looks bullish.  

tvc_e7db269e578d7ee4c4dd6073bf434ddc.png

The move is less impressive on the daily chart, where it rebounded from trend support. Trend resistance may show up around 23k today. If they clear that, the next target would be 25k over the next couple of days. If they don't clear 23k, then you can see where it's headed, maybe sooner, rather than later. 

tvc_33bfe8a82b594d36ed9cfa5a5b603ed7.png

Meanwhile, the 10 year Treasury yield had what the Wall Street shill crowd called a record pullback. But when we look at a weekly chart, it does not look so for mee dob, as we say here in le fronsay. 

tvc_dfede8b27ca7e1f31888dff7f64cb4b0.png

In fact, it is still very much threatening to break out of this massive base pattern, 11 years in the making. Its conventional measured move target would be 6%.

It wasn't hard to see this major turn take shape.  I've been warning Liquidity Trader subscribers to stay the hell away from bonds, and sell em if you got em, since August 2020.

You too can follow along right here. I will show you and tell you exactly how the major forces of macro liquidity move not just the bond market, but stocks as well. Liquidity analysis sets the context for technical analysis. It helps us to narrow the focus of our chart reading to the outcomes that are most likely, given the circumstances. 

To understand the big picture, check out the following:

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. 

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  • DrStool changed the title to Today is the Day We Face the Musique 6/21/22
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Two pals & I played Chez Wayne’s inaugural Fete de la Musique the year it opened. Across the way from Palais de la Justice. That was over three decades ago. Man… where’s the time go? Meanwhile, sitting on a plane waiting to taxi & fly home. Croatia is a spectacular country to visit. May I be fortunate to do so again some day. 

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We bounced off the EMA 200 weekly. That EMA is important (it is the same as that 900 daily MA from K-Wave Rider, who was a genius chart reader) and it contained every downmove since the 2009 bottom (even during Covid crash you would have gone long at 2650, which was not THE bottom, but fair enough).

So all those who do not believe that we gonna get a raging bear will (if not to say MUST) go long right here right now. Furthermore we are very Dover Sole, put/call is at an extreme, sentiment is bearish and Hedge Funds are as short as they were last time in 2009. The „market“ will collect that free money from the Hedgies.

So brutal and quick bear market rally ahead then death dive into August. Just a guess.

 

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1 hour ago, Jimi said:

Two pals & I played Chez Wayne’s inaugural Fete de la Musique the year it opened. Across the way from Palais de la Justice. That was over three decades ago. Man… where’s the time go? Meanwhile, sitting on a plane waiting to taxi & fly home. Croatia is a spectacular country to visit. May I be fortunate to do so again some day. 

Bd90Y8ApsopzFW3_E8R3Xeytb35gh5y6p9AaevhM

 

As for Croatia, it's the poor man's California. It's why I spent so much time there. 😄😄😄 

And the Croats make the French look like amateurs in the Art of Cafe Culture. 

I love that country.  

 

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However, 2-3 day cycle projection 3785-90. That said, if they get there, they should have enough mo to push to 3825. 

tvc_4d753b898c0fa0d8a84c7d93cbcbcbd9.png

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Markets that often move 2-3% per day in both directions are not normal. 

It's a sign of being liquidity starved. The implications of this rally are obvious. 

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