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BTC Is the Market Is the Economy 06/17/20

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Check out this overlay of the hourly chart of BTC with the 24 hour ES S&P fugutures. 

tvc_be839493f3ddd340b31127033e64e934.png

Obviously, this doesn't show cause and effect. Some correlations do, but not this one. But it sure as hell shows correlation and concurrency. Most asset classes are moving in near lockstep as macro liquidity ebbs, with brief periods of remission, or in this case, remittance. Here in the early going on Friday, we're in one of those quiet, weak rebounds. 

At any rate, this correlation does not bode well for stocks, in view of the fact that BTC has a long term target of 5000 below zero. 

tvc_ae7b615e157922daf4c5a6449ef0b298.png

Meanwhile, at 6:30 AM in New York, stocks are rallying as the 3 day cycle has turned up. But it's not clear that the 5 day cycle is finished on the downside. For now, I'll assume that it has, because yesterday's low almost hit a 5 day cycle projection of 3640. But who knows what the junior traders will do in the last hours before the weekend. Take off their shorts before a dip, or dump their longs before heading for Jones Beach. 

tvc_478c10bb0eed6a8119266974df6ee25f.png

The numbers to watch for a breakout either way on this chart are 3639 and 3730. Anything in between is noise. However,  dropping below 3674 would give bears the edge on a breakdown this afternoon. 

Meanwhile, the 10 year yield has pulled back just enough this morning that it is no longer a long term base breakout. 3.261 looks like the magic number. Stay below that, no breakout. Above that, todamoon. Here's the weekly view. 

tvc_8056e8ffa32af80a6da1951574ba3c8e.png

To really understand what's going on there, what lies ahead, what it means for the stock market, and what to do about it to make money from it, or at least preserve what you have left, join me at Liquidity Trader

All of the above is presented to you for free. Remember, you get what you pay for! If you really want to know what's going on, then join me at Liquidity Trader. Check out the links below for extended intros. 

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THE GOD OF PONZI

Thy name is FED.

A dark and hungy god arises.

The Wealth Transfer Vehicles are being sacrificed upon the alter of reality.

The FED can no longer hold the center.

All is in disarray.

Debt destruction slouches towards....wherever......

Is it any co-incidence all the WTV's and Ponzi's grew and flourished under the FEDs interest rate suppression policies.

No co-incidence at all.

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Bitcoin's 1 Year Cycle Projection Drops to 1500

Last week, before the Saturday Night Slaughter, BTC's one year cycle projection was 12,000.  Now it's 1500. Here's how it looks on a linear scale chart. As you can see, there's trend sport around 17,000-16,500 Sunday and Monday. If that breaks, then the next semi-likely sport line and bounce point would be from around 14k. 

yd452

This does not surprise us because the conventional measured move target of the top breakdown has always been 5000 below zero. 

Here again is a linear scale view of the long term. This chart suggests that the next sport level is around 13,000. 

yd46c

I'll be posting an update of the technical stock market outlook at Liquidity Trader a bit later today. Stay tuned for that. 

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