DrStool Posted June 6, 2022 Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 First they bore you. Then they excite you and suck you in. And then they drop the hammer. We're in the boring stage. One thing is for sure. The longer this goes on, the longer it will go on. The levels to watch are 4190, on the upside, and 4098 on the downside. Set your alarms at those levels, or play golf, or go to the beach, or if you're old like me, take a nap, or go to sit on a park bench by the sea. Besides, if you're sitting by the beach in Nice, you might see something that will excite you. More than this market, at least. Meanwhile, let's keep an eye on The Key To Everything. It's the 10 year yield, and it needs to merely clear 2.981 to end the likelihood that this pattern will turn into a head and shoulders top. Quantitative Tightening is Here, and the Effect Will Be Devastating Swing Trade Screens – Dipping A Short Toe Before the Next Big Wave June 6, 2022 Here’s Why It’s Too Soon to Go Short Again (Mostly)June 6, 2022 The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May June 2, 2022 Quantitative Tightening is Here, and the Effect Will Be Devastating June 1, 2022 A Great Week for Swing Trade Screen Picks May 31, 2022 We Hold Our Gold Miners, Add Another May 24, 2022 Stocks Are Ahead of the Curve May 23, 2022 Dealer Positions Show It’s Not Getting Better and It Should Get Worse May 15, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 5 day cycle projection 4190 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 6, 2022 Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 Doc, which role could the BoJ play? Printer running full steam, USD/JPY strong since March, meaning buying of USD denominated assets by selling Yen. Background deal FED/BoJ:“We reduce and you go on full force. Deal?“, „Deal“. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 6, 2022 Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 22 minutes ago, fxfox said: Doc, which role could the BoJ play? Printer running full steam, USD/JPY strong since March, meaning buying of USD denominated assets by selling Yen. Background deal FED/BoJ:“We reduce and you go on full force. Deal?“, „Deal“. Above and beyond my pay grade. I never speculate on what "could" or "should" be. I observe the trend of the data and try to notice when it is undergoing change. Over the past 20 years, there have often been times when the Fed, ECB, BoJ, have passed the ball to one of its cohorts. It can have a dampening effect. But when all 3 are moving in the same direction at the same time, it has an amplifying effect. The trend seems to be for the ECB and BoJ to be lagging the Fed in tightening, but in the months ahead, they may all get in synch. Then watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 Quelle est la raison du jour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted June 6, 2022 Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 <deleted> that actually got released earlier - never mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 5 hours ago, DrStool said: First they bore you. Then they excite you and suck you in. And then they drop the hammer. We're in the boring stage. One thing is for sure. The longer this goes on, the longer it will go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted June 6, 2022 Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 that '67 Camaro pictured to the left is finally rising in value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted June 6, 2022 Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 The 10-year has a 3-handle. That's higher than a 2-handle. It's also higher than a 1-handle. This is your market insight from me for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 6, 2022 Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 3 hours ago, DrStool said: Above and beyond my pay grade. I never speculate on what "could" or "should" be. I observe the trend of the data and try to notice when it is undergoing change. Over the past 20 years, there have often been times when the Fed, ECB, BoJ, have passed the ball to one of its cohorts. It can have a dampening effect. But when all 3 are moving in the same direction at the same time, it has an amplifying effect. The trend seems to be for the ECB and BoJ to be lagging the Fed in tightening, but in the months ahead, they may all get in synch. Then watch out. Yes. The ECB is so much behind the curve, it is absolutely abnormal. The pressure from the ordinary people to foght inflation is already becomming quite huge. Prices for ordinary goods are rising and rising, every week. The ECB will be forced to begin a rate hiking cycle. Also one has to consider: Last time we had real inflation was 45-50 years ago. So even todays 60 year old people never really lived thru inflation. How will they react? I read a study about buying behaviour which was done BEFORE the Ukraine war and then - back in Jan, Feb 2022 people had already begun to decrease their expenses for consumer discretionary. Consumer discretionary is absolute toast. Done. Finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 2 hour bars. What is it? Top or consolidation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 2 hours ago, Jimi said: The 10-year has a 3-handle. That's higher than a 2-handle. It's also higher than a 1-handle. This is your market insight from me for the month. More insightful than anything Wall Street puts out. I like it. Keep it simple. The trend is your fren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 46 minutes ago, fxfox said: Yes. The ECB is so much behind the curve, it is absolutely abnormal. The pressure from the ordinary people to foght inflation is already becomming quite huge. Prices for ordinary goods are rising and rising, every week. The ECB will be forced to begin a rate hiking cycle. Also one has to consider: Last time we had real inflation was 45-50 years ago. So even todays 60 year old people never really lived thru inflation. How will they react? I read a study about buying behaviour which was done BEFORE the Ukraine war and then - back in Jan, Feb 2022 people had already begun to decrease their expenses for consumer discretionary. Consumer discretionary is absolute toast. Done. Finished. I hear the complaints all the time. And of course I've seen it, living here in France. But it has been cushioned for me because the dollar has gained so much in value. And I don't spend much anyway. Most of my expenses are fixed. Where are you in Allemagne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 6, 2022 Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 36 minutes ago, DrStool said: I hear the complaints all the time. And of course I've seen it, living here in France. But it has been cushioned for me because the dollar has gained so much in value. And I don't spend much anyway. Most of my expenses are fixed. Where are you in Allemagne? I can‘t go into details here 😂😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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