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US Stock Market Triangulates the Distance to Hell 6/6/22

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First they bore you. Then they excite you and suck you in. And then they drop the hammer. 
 
We're in the boring stage. 
 
One thing is for sure. The longer this goes on, the longer it will go on. 
 
The levels to watch are 4190, on the upside, and 4098 on the downside. Set your alarms at those levels, or play golf, or go to the beach, or if you're old like me, take a nap, or go to sit on a park bench by the sea. Besides, if you're sitting by the beach in Nice, you might see something that will excite you. 
 
More than this market, at least. 
 tvc_3c127665d93d0946c24b566ff1497d9b.png
 
Meanwhile, let's keep an eye on The Key To Everything.
 
tvc_c35a0d7bd03691a8bcd04df884149e9c.png
 
It's the 10 year yield, and it needs to merely clear 2.981 to end the likelihood that this pattern will turn into a head and shoulders top.  Quantitative Tightening is Here, and the Effect Will Be Devastating
 

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me

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Doc,

which role could the BoJ play? Printer running full steam, USD/JPY strong since March, meaning buying of USD denominated assets by selling Yen.

Background deal FED/BoJ:“We reduce and you go on full force. Deal?“, „Deal“. 

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22 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Doc,

which role could the BoJ play? Printer running full steam, USD/JPY strong since March, meaning buying of USD denominated assets by selling Yen.

Background deal FED/BoJ:“We reduce and you go on full force. Deal?“, „Deal“. 

Above and beyond my pay grade. I never speculate on what "could" or "should" be. I observe the trend of the data and try to notice when it is undergoing change. 

Over the past 20 years, there have often been times when the Fed, ECB, BoJ, have passed the ball to one of its cohorts. It can have a dampening effect. But when all 3 are moving in the same direction at the same time, it has an amplifying effect. The trend seems to be for the ECB and BoJ to be lagging the Fed in tightening, but in the months ahead, they may all get in synch. Then watch out. 

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5 hours ago, DrStool said:
First they bore you. Then they excite you and suck you in. And then they drop the hammer. 
 
We're in the boring stage. 
 
One thing is for sure. The longer this goes on, the longer it will go on. 

 

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The 10-year has a 3-handle.

That's higher than a 2-handle.

It's also higher than a 1-handle.

This is your market insight from me for the month.

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3 hours ago, DrStool said:

Above and beyond my pay grade. I never speculate on what "could" or "should" be. I observe the trend of the data and try to notice when it is undergoing change. 

Over the past 20 years, there have often been times when the Fed, ECB, BoJ, have passed the ball to one of its cohorts. It can have a dampening effect. But when all 3 are moving in the same direction at the same time, it has an amplifying effect. The trend seems to be for the ECB and BoJ to be lagging the Fed in tightening, but in the months ahead, they may all get in synch. Then watch out. 

Yes. The ECB is so much behind the curve, it is absolutely abnormal. The pressure from the ordinary people to foght inflation is already becomming quite huge. Prices for ordinary goods are rising and rising, every week. The ECB will be forced to begin a rate hiking cycle.

Also one has to consider: Last time we had real inflation was 45-50 years ago. So even todays 60 year old people never really lived thru inflation. How will they react? I read a study about buying behaviour which was done BEFORE the Ukraine war and then - back in Jan, Feb 2022 people had already begun to decrease their expenses for consumer discretionary.

Consumer discretionary is absolute toast. Done. Finished. 

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2 hours ago, Jimi said:

The 10-year has a 3-handle.

That's higher than a 2-handle.

It's also higher than a 1-handle.

This is your market insight from me for the month.

More insightful than anything Wall Street puts out. 

I like it. Keep it simple. 

The trend is your fren. 

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46 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Yes. The ECB is so much behind the curve, it is absolutely abnormal. The pressure from the ordinary people to foght inflation is already becomming quite huge. Prices for ordinary goods are rising and rising, every week. The ECB will be forced to begin a rate hiking cycle.

Also one has to consider: Last time we had real inflation was 45-50 years ago. So even todays 60 year old people never really lived thru inflation. How will they react? I read a study about buying behaviour which was done BEFORE the Ukraine war and then - back in Jan, Feb 2022 people had already begun to decrease their expenses for consumer discretionary.

Consumer discretionary is absolute toast. Done. Finished. 

I hear the complaints all the time. And of course I've seen it, living here in France. But it has been cushioned for me because the dollar has gained so much in value. And I don't spend much anyway. Most of my expenses are fixed. 

Where are you in Allemagne? 

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36 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I hear the complaints all the time. And of course I've seen it, living here in France. But it has been cushioned for me because the dollar has gained so much in value. And I don't spend much anyway. Most of my expenses are fixed. 

Where are you in Allemagne? 

I can‘t go into details here 😂😉

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