DrStool Posted May 31, 2022 Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 The ES 24 hour S&P fugutures hit 4202 overnight, but that was well shy of a 5 day cycle projection of 4245. Meanwhile, as of 3:45 AM in New York, the futures have fallen back sharply, thanks to European traders, and various and sundry trading algos having second thoughts here this morning. At the moment, the 2-3 day cycle projection on this pullback is 4105. That also happens to be about where the 1 week uptrend channel lower line happens to be in a few hours. So we'll watch for the bounce and see how far they can run with it. For the big picture: A Great Week for Swing Trade Screen Picks May 31, 2022 Shot from Guns, This Market Looks Like Puffed Rice May 30, 2022 We Hold Our Gold Miners, Add Another May 24, 2022 Even Steven in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 23, 2022 Stocks Are Ahead of the Curve May 23, 2022 Dealer Positions Show It’s Not Getting Better and It Should Get Worse May 15, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 A Great Week for Swing Trade Screen Picks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 The 10 year yield has come down to a support convergence and popped. This is a critical fulcrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 This is getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted May 31, 2022 Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 OVERVALUED STOCK OF THE DAY Disney Market cap $200 billion Free cash flow $2 billion Its not pretty Not pretty at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 This thing is a hair away from reversing that beautiful base breakout. So far, it's just a return to the scene of the crime, but it won't be if they don't rebound soon. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 31, 2022 Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 34 minutes ago, Jimbo said: OVERVALUED STOCK OF THE DAY Disney Market cap $200 billion Free cash flow $2 billion Its not pretty Not pretty at all. could not resist.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 31, 2022 Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 Lee, Been following Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 (former Fed Reserve open markets trader) has a good article out. He sees RRP going to $2.5 trillion. accelerating reduction in bank deposits and asset selling. https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 6 hours ago, DrStool said: At the moment, the 2-3 day cycle projection on this pullback is 4105. That also happens to be about where the 1 week uptrend channel lower line happens to be in a few hours. So we'll watch for the bounce and see how far they can run with it. Ooop there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 21 minutes ago, potatohead said: Lee, Been following Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 (former Fed Reserve open markets trader) has a good article out. He sees RRP going to $2.5 trillion. accelerating reduction in bank deposits and asset selling. https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/ That a former Fed trader confirms my work is heartening. Lori Logan, the Fed's head trader, soon to be President of the Dallas Fed, has also written and spoken extensively about the process. She too confirms exactly what I have been writing about for 20 years. It's just how the monetary system works. And it's not how Wall Street, or mainstream economists say it works. They're all full of shit. People like Wang and Logan know the deal from the inside. It's great that they are setting things straight, but I guarantee this. No one on Wall Street will pay any attention, or work to amplify these facts, because it doesn't serve their purposes. I had always wondered if any Fed insiders would finally speak up. In the past year or so, they've begun to. Why? I don't know. But it's good to know that my interpretation of what I've observed has been dead on. I didn't need Fed insiders to tell me, however. The market told me. It's really just a matter of seeing the dots and connecting them. When the Fed allows its Treasury holdings to be redeemed, this causes deposits to be withdrawn from the banking system to repay the the Fed's loans to the Treasury. The Treasury needs to issue more paper to the public to repay the Fed. The public pays for the paper by writing checks from their checking accounts. The Treasury then repays the Fed, and the money is extinguished, i.e. it goes back into the Fed's imagination, from whence it can be rematerialized when needed in the future. I have been warning about this for many months. Tells me that you don't need to be on the inside to understand the process. It's just accounting 101! 😊 Now, as for the RRPs getting to $2.5 trillion by year end. I don't see that as a possibility. The Treasury will need to start issuing T-bills again soon. Some RRP holders will use RRP cash to buy the bills. But the higher the total in RRPs holds, the more bearish it is. This report explains and tells what to look for, how to play it in fixed income and stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 31, 2022 Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, DrStool said: That a former Fed trader confirms my work is heartening. Lori Logan, the Fed's head trader, soon to be President of the Dallas Fed, has also written and spoken extensively about the process. She too confirms exactly what I have been writing about for 20 years. It's just how the monetary system works. And it's not how Wall Street, or mainstream economists say it works. They're all full of shit. People like Wang and Logan know the deal from the inside. It's great that they are setting things straight, but I guarantee this. No one on Wall Street will pay any attention, or work to amplify these facts, because it doesn't serve their purposes. I had always wondered if any Fed insiders would finally speak up. In the past year or so, they've begun to. Why? I don't know. But it's good to know that my interpretation of what I've observed has been dead on. I didn't need Fed insiders to tell me, however. The market told me. It's really just a matter of seeing the dots and connecting them. When the Fed allows its Treasury holdings to be redeemed, this causes deposits to be withdrawn from the banking system to repay the the Fed's loans to the Treasury. The Treasury needs to issue more paper to the public to repay the Fed. The public pays for the paper by writing checks from their checking accounts. The Treasury then repays the Fed, and the money is extinguished, i.e. it goes back into the Fed's imagination, from whence it can be rematerialized when needed in the future. I have been warning about this for many months. Tells me that you don't need to be on the inside to understand the process. It's just accounting 101! 😊 Now, as for the RRPs getting to $2.5 trillion by year end. I don't see that as a possibility. The Treasury will need to start issuing T-bills again soon. Some RRP holders will use RRP cash to buy the bills. But the higher the total in RRPs holds, the more bearish it is. This report explains and tells what to look for, how to play it in fixed income and stocks. Lee, All I can say is I wish the Fintwit community paid more attention to you. I have a feeling this is just the beginning, like you said, if the Fed wants to drain, this could get ugly. All ready started? https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/exclusive-credit-suisse-weighs-options-strengthen-capital-sources-2022-05-30/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted May 31, 2022 Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 1 hour ago, potatohead said: could not resist.... And as usual, Another Rip job higher, that picture has been doom for the bears.......for more than a decade...... >: QT........Herbert is laughing his F'ing A$$ off........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted May 31, 2022 Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 another day of Perma Bid....... buy it higher at any price...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 1 hour ago, potatohead said: Lee, All I can say is I wish the Fintwit community paid more attention to you. I have a feeling this is just the beginning, like you said, if the Fed wants to drain, this could get ugly. All ready started? https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/exclusive-credit-suisse-weighs-options-strengthen-capital-sources-2022-05-30/ I don't know about paying attention. But it would be nice if more people subscribed and helped me pay the bills. 😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2022 Market is following the script perfectly today. Now we're at the push comes to shove stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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