DrStool Posted May 26, 2022 Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 Normally we don't think of wedge patterns as leading to breakouts, but this one might. Here's how it looks on the 2 hour bars of the ES 24 hour S&P fuguetures. And zooming into our usual look at the hourly bars. It's a messy pattern, but clearly bullish, with higher lows and higher highs as it continuously breaks longer and longer trendlines. So this appears headed for another trend break. The 5 day cycle projection looks like 4030. Can bears win it? Sure. There's a shot. But they need to take out 3960 to take possession. For the big picture: We Hold Our Gold Miners, Add Another May 24, 2022 Even Steven in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 23, 2022 Stocks Are Ahead of the Curve May 23, 2022 Market Indicators Show Crash Risk Remains Intact May 22, 2022 Gold Miners Make Short Term Bottom, But Wait, There’s More! May 17, 2022 Buys Beat Shorts Again in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 16, 2022 Dealer Positions Show It’s Not Getting Better and It Should Get Worse May 15, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 The USA is not pro-life. Plain and simple. If it was, politicians would promote life affirming policies. Anti-gun, pro-universal health care. At the very least, revive the ban on assault weapons. The US the only place in the world where this happens regularly. What a disgusting, sick culture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 Last time my chart pick list had a near10% gain, the market reversed. So this time, I tightened the trailing stops to protect the gains. So far, so good. Percentage based on 100% cash, no margin, no options. Boring. Sorry. 9.4% on a 2 week average holding period? Am I allowed to project compounding? No. 😄😄😄 Even Steven in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: The 5 day cycle projection looks like 4030. Now looks more like 4070. There's also a trendline there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 Oop there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 33 minutes ago, DrStool said: Now looks more like 4070. There's also a trendline there. I'll see your 4070 and raise you to 4100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted May 26, 2022 Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 After bad news from Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) last week it looked like homo vulgarus sub-species americanus was going extinct. But this week, Dollar Tree (DLTR), William Sonoma (WSM), Dollar General (DG), Nordstrom's (JWN), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) and Macy's (M) showed he is doing well. After hours, GAP (GPS), Abercrombie & Fitch (FTCH), Costco (COST) will round out retail for the week. I know folks here mainly trade liquidity and technicals but it is nice to take the pulse of the working class once in a while. They may not be able to afford a new house anymore, and they are losing their shirt in their 401K and crypto. Gas it killing them... but somehow they are still afloat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 Some are. Some aren't. Half the people are below the median. And the median won't support a family in most places. The Fed made this mess, and there's no goddam way out. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted May 26, 2022 Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 All that I can tell you is the money is flowing into, and then out of, manufacturing and construction here in MI. It's the best job market since 1969. The state has a $2bn surplus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 Anybody who thinks inflation is moderating, think again. PPI- Final Demand- Core Finished Consumer Goods leads. And it is not suppressed by the bogus, Owner's Equivalent Rent fraud substitute for housing inflation. It just doesn't include housing. The Fed did this. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jorma said: All that I can tell you is the money is flowing into, and then out of, manufacturing and construction here in MI. It's the best job market since 1969. The state has a $2bn surplus. The economy is in an inflationary boom. This is very bearish. Recession is bullish. The Fed has to get us to recession. The longer it takes, the worse it will be for the markets. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted May 26, 2022 Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 Bloomberg brings out sell side anal cyst every single day saying inflation is done and the Fed won't hike 50bps the next two meetings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 Rate hikes are irrelevant. They're the tail. Money is the dog. Wall Street perpetually doesn't get this. The dealers do of course, but they don't want everyone else to know it. So they pretend that it's the rates that matter. Rates are the measure of monetary tightness. 13 week bill is a market rate, not manipulated. Fed must follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted May 26, 2022 Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, sandy beach said: Bloomberg brings out sell side anal cyst every single day saying inflation is done and the Fed won't hike 50bps the next two meetings. Well maybe QT will end in June. Why wait for trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted May 26, 2022 Report Share Posted May 26, 2022 Fed minutes yesterday said participants believed we will still have a 2.8% GDP growth year. Kyle Bass says this morning "That's just not going to happen!" A lot of folks want to pretend we can end inflation without pain. It simply isn't possible. Quantitative tightening is going to be painful if they really want to crush inflation. It was painful in the early 1980s and it'll be painful again this year unless they just give up on their inflation mandate and prop up leveraged asset prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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