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Nowhere Man, Let's Roll 5/25/22

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Looking at this hourly chart of the 24 hour ES fuguetures, we see a market going nowhere fast. Over the past 2 weeks it has made a lower low, a higher high, and every trend permutation imaginable. Yech. 

Today, once again, the market is making a triangle pattern, which epitomizes indecision. If recent history is our guide it will work it's way out toward the apex, which is at 2940 in the wee hours overnight tonight.

In the meantime, the likely trading range starts now from 3910 to 3965. If they escape that noose, we'll get a little bit of a run, until they hit the next resistance or sport level. Whereupon it should reverse yet again. 

Ugh.

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Meanwhile, back at the big picture:

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2 hours ago, potatohead said:

Lee,

Since you had a lot of experience in the real estate market. Many refer to Case-Shiller index however, I came across the following site that focuses on any local market. https://www.movoto.com/market-trends/

Are you familiar with Movoto's market trends  data? Or is this just an aggregate site of various stats.

Not familiar with it but it looks like a Zillow/Redfin/Realtor.com type of thing. They are apparently using MLS data for their local market data. It's the only data source that is that granular.

They report average selling price for the market area, but their graphs show average list price. I saw nothing on the methodology they are using. But it appears to be regurgitating MLS data at the most granular level. Seems good enough. Can get similar local data from Redfin, Zillow, or Realtor.com. They all source from MLS.  Your local MLS may also have a local website with that data. 

MLS data is the most comprehensive and most timely data in the market. It's far more reliable and timely than Case Shiller or FHFA.

Listing price data is as good as selling price in terms of showing the trends. Just figure that its around 5-10% higher than avg selling prices. 

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With a look at the 2 hour bars you can see the failed breakout on this VITL. Very Important Trendline. 

y7jt1

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But alas they are still working toward trickling out the apex of the triangle. 

In Memoriam

Dick Trickle

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13 minutes ago, Jimi said:

Well then.

That was spirited.

Can I call that a ringing endorsement? 

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My eldest started at the local public high school this year. It's a gritty place. They've had three lock-downs so far.  The first was because a dispute in the library between two kids resulted in one flashing a gun. Security intervened and no one was injured. The second involved a kid who'd either graduated or been previously kicked out who was observed having hopped a fence and was on foot on campus wearing a backpack. Cops arrived and he was detained. The third involved a break-in to a neighboring house, and when the perp fled, the police weren't sure whether he was armed and whether he'd made his way onto campus across the street to hide... that lockdown also impacted a nearby elementary school, because they weren't sure where the guy had gone. The school sends out an immediate robocall & email when these events happen, and then we get texts from our son from inside the classroom where he is, barricaded with classmates behind a locked door and with shades drawn. The three-way texts between him and my wife & me during these episodes are filled with dark humor. I reminded him last week in the wake of the last episode that despite our family's particular macabre text-management, when there's a lockdown, he needs immediately to focus on his available "Run, Hide, Fight" options. Because we want him to come the fuck home.

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Again on the brink of breaking a 3 week downtrend line. Clearing 3985 would have a measured move target of 4140. 

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6 minutes ago, Jimi said:

My eldest started at the local public high school this year. It's a gritty place. They've had three lock-downs so far.  The first was because a dispute in the library between two kids resulted in one flashing a gun. Security intervened and no one was injured. The second involved a kid who'd either graduated or been previously kicked out who was observed having hopped a fence and was on foot on campus wearing a backpack. Cops arrived and he was detained. The third involved a break-in to a neighboring house, and when the perp fled, the police weren't sure whether he was armed and whether he'd made his way onto campus across the street to hide... that lockdown also impacted a nearby elementary school, because they weren't sure where the guy had gone. The school sends out an immediate robocall & email when these events happen, and then we get texts from our son from inside the classroom where he is, barricaded with classmates behind a locked door and with shades drawn. The three-way texts between him and my wife & me during these episodes are filled with dark humor. I reminded him last week in the wake of the last episode that despite our family's particular macabre text-management, when there's a lockdown, he needs immediately to focus on his available "Run, Hide, Fight" options. Because we want him to come the fuck home.

Only in America. 

So goddam fucking sad. 

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