DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 The hourly ES 24 hour S&P fugutures chart made a picture perfect bottom over 5 days through yesterday, and then proceeded to rally, as we might expect. But the rally is punk. It's stuck in the mud. It needs to clear 3950, or else consider it dead! What are the odds? They're actually pretty good. They've managed to eke out a couple of fractional new highs yesterday and overnight, and that's usually a good tipoff that an upside move is coming. That said, that worked great in the bull market, and we're not in a bull market any more Dorothy. But if they clear 3950, the conventional measured move price target on the hourly breakout would be around 4040-4045. That wouldn't break the bigger downtrend, and would be a good stopping point. To make a convincing case for resuming the decline, then we would probably need to break 3925 at least in the early going in NY trading. Failing that, the bulls and short covering chicken bears will drive the action. For the big picture: Gold Miners Make Short Term Bottom, But Wait, There’s More! May 17, 2022 Buys Beat Shorts Again in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 16, 2022 Market Rebound Still Leaves Crash Risk Intact May 16, 2022 Dealer Positions Show It’s Not Getting Better and It Should Get Worse May 15, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 It's apex time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 Really carrying this to the nth degree. This is zooming in to 30 minute bars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 And 15 minutes. Oh so close to a sell signal. Or a rebuy? Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 Decision at the open. Sell! 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 Need to break 3920 and 3908 to confirm. Otherwise it's a fakeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted May 20, 2022 Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 Movement in, and resolution of that triangle this morning was remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted May 20, 2022 Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 I know almost nothing, despite thousands of posts. But it seems like Bully really needs 3860 to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 I went shopping. Did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted May 20, 2022 Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 it's an orderly decline, considering we're experiencing the dissolution of humanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 Musk is a kook. Buying a car from him is asking for a rasher of shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, BurntOnce said: it's an orderly decline, considering we're experiencing the dissolution of humanity. Correct. PA is the bellwether for the end of US democracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 I just realized that the name of the street I live on in Nice is pronounced Philly Bear. I shit you not. In French it's Philibert. I got chills when it dawned on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 I'm getting a 5 day cycle projection of 3825 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 The measured move objective of the breakdown of the recent double bottom is 3630. The measured move objective of the earlier big top breakdown was 3720. Closing below 3850 would imply 2900. It could get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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