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Pathetic Rally From Picture Perfect Bottom 5/20/22

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The hourly ES 24 hour S&P fugutures chart made a picture perfect bottom over 5 days through yesterday, and then proceeded to rally, as we might expect. But the rally is punk. It's stuck in the mud. It needs to clear 3950, or else consider it dead!

What are the odds? They're actually pretty good. They've managed to eke out a couple of fractional new highs yesterday and overnight, and that's usually a good tipoff that an upside move is coming. That said, that worked great in the bull market, and we're not in a bull market any more Dorothy. 

But if they clear 3950, the conventional measured move price target on the hourly breakout would be around 4040-4045. That wouldn't break the bigger downtrend, and would be a good stopping point. 

To make a convincing case for resuming the decline, then we would probably need to break 3925 at least in the early going in NY trading. Failing that, the bulls and short covering chicken bears will drive the action.

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12 minutes ago, BurntOnce said:

it's an orderly decline, considering we're experiencing the dissolution of humanity.

Correct. 

PA is the bellwether for the end of US democracy. 

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I just realized that the name of the street I live on in Nice is pronounced Philly Bear. 

I shit you not. 

In French it's Philibert. 

I got chills when it dawned on me. 

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The measured move objective of the breakdown of the recent double bottom is 3630. 

The measured move objective of the earlier big top breakdown was 3720. 

Closing below 3850 would imply 2900. 

It could get worse. 

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