DrStool Posted May 19, 2022 Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 Lest there be any doubt about whether we've been in a bear market since January, this morning's action should disabuse those of that notion. Especially the boobs waiting for a CNBC declared bear market on the basis of a 20% decline. Whether or not something is in a bear market has nothing to do with percentages. It's about trend and time. This is now the second time the 24 hour S&P 500 futures have made a lower low after a lower high. The bull market peaked on December 27 of 2021, and has been in a downtrend ever since. It's a bear market. Long term momentum indicators began signaling that shortly after the top was in. But the mainstream media adheres to this insane "rule," from whence no one knows where it came, that only a market that's down 20% is a bear market. Charles Dow, Hamilton and Rhea are rolling over in their graves. But here and now is all we're interested in, in this thread. And the 5 day cycle projection of 3865-75 has been hit. The hourly futures exceeded their prior low by 0.01. That's usually a signal to the dealers that this is the low, but expect lower lows later. So I'll go with that for now. 4 As of 6 AM in New York, I'll guess that the market will rally from here. If it doesn't, then the immediate target would be 3800-3810. If it does rally, then it needs to clear 3875 by 8 AM. Failing that, we'd still be in crash helmet mode. If they clear it, then the target would be 3930-50 in the opening hour in NY. A battle there would signal whether we get more upside later, or a resumption of the crash. For the big picture: Gold Miners Make Short Term Bottom, But Wait, There’s More! May 17, 2022 Buys Beat Shorts Again in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 16, 2022 Market Rebound Still Leaves Crash Risk Intact May 16, 2022 Dealer Positions Show It’s Not Getting Better and It Should Get Worse May 15, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 They're buying the 10 year as stocks crash. Targeting 2.72. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 Not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 The rally on F 3 hours ago, DrStool said: If it does rally, then it needs to clear 3875 by 8 AM. Failing that, we'd still be in crash helmet mode. If they clear it, then the target would be 3930-50 in the opening hour in NY. A battle there would signal whether we get more upside later, or a resumption of the crash. And here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 That's some needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted May 19, 2022 Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted May 19, 2022 Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 Yeah… that’s pretty nuts. Could it be a bad print? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted May 19, 2022 Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 Actually, big volume bar with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 Looks like a decent bottom. Depends on the pullback. If it holds above 3898.5, short covering will resume and bulls will pile in. Technical Trader Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 I believe the rally has failed and that a resumption of the crash is more likely than an upside breakout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 Things might just go dead for awhile as this little triangle converges toward 3910. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 19, 2022 Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 2 hours ago, DrStool said: Looks like a decent bottom. Depends on the pullback. If it holds above 3898.5, short covering will resume and bulls will pile in. Technical Trader Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial! In the spirit of Sesame Street One of these things lines is not like the others, One of these things lines just doesn't belong, Can you tell which thing line is not like the others By the time I finish my song? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, potatohead said: In the spirit of Sesame Street One of these things lines is not like the others, One of these things lines just doesn't belong, Can you tell which thing line is not like the others By the time I finish my song? Are you making fun of my charts? 😄😄😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: I believe the rally has failed and that a resumption of the crash is more likely than an upside breakout. Meh. So. I was wrong. 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted May 19, 2022 Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 I think a crash has to be quantified. Actually I hate even thinking about it. A crash to me is when the lights don't go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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