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Market Makes New Low, Re-confirming the Bear- 5/19/22

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Lest there be any doubt about whether we've been in a bear market since January, this morning's action should disabuse those of that notion. Especially the boobs waiting for  a CNBC declared bear market on the basis of a 20% decline.

Whether or not something is in a bear market has nothing to do with percentages. It's about trend and time. This is now the second time the 24 hour S&P 500 futures have made a lower low after a lower high. The bull market peaked on December 27 of 2021, and has been in a downtrend ever since. 

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It's a bear market. Long term momentum indicators began signaling that shortly after the top was in. But the mainstream media adheres to this insane "rule," from whence no one knows where it came, that only a market that's down 20% is a bear market. 

Charles Dow, Hamilton and Rhea are rolling over in their graves. 

But here and now is all we're interested in, in this thread.  And the 5 day cycle projection of 3865-75 has been hit. The hourly futures exceeded their prior low by 0.01. That's usually a signal to the dealers that this is the low, but expect lower lows later. So I'll go with that for now. 4

As of 6 AM in New York, I'll guess that the market will rally from here. If it doesn't, then the immediate target would be 3800-3810. If it does rally, then it needs to clear 3875 by 8 AM. Failing that, we'd still be in crash helmet mode. If they clear it, then the target would be 3930-50 in the opening hour in NY. A battle there would signal whether we get more upside later, or a resumption of the crash. 

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  • DrStool changed the title to Market Makes New Low, Re-confirming the Bear- 5/19/22

They're buying the 10 year as stocks crash. Targeting 2.72. 

 

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The rally on F

3 hours ago, DrStool said:

If it does rally, then it needs to clear 3875 by 8 AM. Failing that, we'd still be in crash helmet mode. If they clear it, then the target would be 3930-50 in the opening hour in NY. A battle there would signal whether we get more upside later, or a resumption of the crash. 

And here we are. 

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Looks like a decent bottom. Depends on the pullback. If it holds above 3898.5, short  covering will resume and bulls will pile in. 

image.png

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I believe the rally has failed and that a resumption of the crash is more likely than an upside breakout. 

image.png

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Looks like a decent bottom. Depends on the pullback. If it holds above 3898.5, short  covering will resume and bulls will pile in. 

image.png

Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

 

In the spirit of Sesame Street

One of these things lines is not like the others,
One of these things lines just doesn't belong,
Can you tell which thing line is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?

 

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30 minutes ago, potatohead said:

In the spirit of Sesame Street

One of these things lines is not like the others,
One of these things lines just doesn't belong,
Can you tell which thing line is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?

 

Are you making fun of my charts? 

😄😄😄

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

I believe the rally has failed and that a resumption of the crash is more likely than an upside breakout. 

image.png

Meh. So. I was wrong. 

😁

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