DrStool Posted May 13, 2022 Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 The 24 hour ES S&P 500 fugutures are maintaining the dead cat bounce that began late yesterday. The hourly chart shows that the short covering has carried the price to downtrend resistance at 3975 as of 7:15 AM in New York. The 2-3 day cycle projection points to a high of 4030, suggesting a breakout from the immediate downtrend but not the bigger multiday trend. The last high, set way back yesterday was 4055, and the one before that, set Wednesday was 4069. So the bulls have their work cut out before they can claim success in putting in a significant low. Meanwhile, if the bears can hold either here, or 3992, or 4000, 4010 or 4027, that would be really sick. Grab some popcorn and sit back for the late Friday show. I don't pretend to know how this will go. Those are the key levels. Rules number Two and One continue to apply. The trend is your friend, and Don't fight the Fed. Big Tops Lead to Big, Bad Bear Markets Meanwhile, the prices of other currencies in US doodahs, particularly the geuro, the doodah's primary competitor, are plunging. The geuro seems destined to break this major, major sport level around 103 and set its sights on parity with the doodah. In fact, if this pattern breaks, the conventional measured move objective would be $0.81. But currency markets have limits. Currency prices, like stock prices, are determined in the long run by what the central banks decide. It's a matter of who's printing more or less, relative to the other. The Fed stopped printing, and the ECB is still printing. As long as that continues, the geuro will continue to trend toward a lower price in doodahs, and versa vice. The price of doodahs will rise even faster against the geuro next month when the Fed starts withdrawing doodahs from the banking system. This directly affects the European currency because 8 of the Fed's Primary Dealers are European banks. That includes a couple of Brit banks with heavy presence on the incontinent. Catch a Falling Knife In the Cryptonite space, Buttcoin leads the way with a holding action around the 30,000 sport line. All signs point to an eventual breakdown, with the next target around 21,000 in the course of moving toward the ultimate price objective of a negative number. Here's the weekly chart. Meanwhile, over in the bond market, Treasuries have had a helluva rally in the past week, sending the 10 year yield plunging to 2.816. But that paused yesterday. If the buying subsides here, the yield should percolate back to 3.20, and then points north. Way, way north. On the other hand, if the selling panic in other assets resumes, expect money to roll into Treasuries. Then if they break that 2.816, I'd look for 2.60-2.65. It would be dramatic, but would not reverse the trend. April Tax Collections Still Running Red Hot Mean That Fed Must Get Tighter Stay tuned for all the exciting action. Catch a Falling Knife May 11, 2022 Buys Beat Shorts in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 9, 2022 Big Tops Lead to Big, Bad Bear Markets May 8, 2022 April Tax Collections Still Running Red Hot Mean That Fed Must Get Tighter May 4, 2022 Time to Catch Gold Knives May 3, 2022 The Fed is Tightening Into a Sheet Storm May 2, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 Pressing the breakout case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted May 13, 2022 Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 Friday(13th) Rally....Bear Rally....JBTFD Rally........or resubstantiation? Senate votes in/for Powell..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 13, 2022 Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 Thank you Lee for providing time today for the Spaces event. https://twitter.com/profitsplusid/status/1524940442869047308?s=20&t=tqtz5oxd6VMNrjVZ3JSwhw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted May 13, 2022 Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 slv up handsomely, with declining gold. that gold/silver ratio is reconciling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 Now we have a meltup channel working against the bigger downtrend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, potatohead said: Thank you Lee for providing time today for the Spaces event. https://twitter.com/profitsplusid/status/1524940442869047308?s=20&t=tqtz5oxd6VMNrjVZ3JSwhw Bob, what's with the time change? Is that a mistake? Tom told me 3 PM MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, DrStool said: Bob, what's with the time change? Is that a mistake? Tom told me 3 PM MT. Sorry, I'm not getting the time calc right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 13, 2022 Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, DrStool said: Bob, what's with the time change? Is that a mistake? Tom told me 3 PM MT. This is correct. Should be at 5 pm East coast , 3 pm MT. T Reaching out to Tom, He may have got his time regions confused. adjusted 2 hours the wrong way. Will clarify. Wanted to have this after the market close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 13, 2022 Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 Just now, potatohead said: This is correct. Should be at 5 pm East coast , 3 pm MT. T Reaching out to Tom, He may have got his time regions confused. adjusted 2 hours the wrong way. Will clarify. Wanted to have this after the market close. Tom is making the change. I will be tagging a lot of people to tune in. I am very grateful for your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 Far as I know, it's always 6 hours late here than ET, except first two weeks of DST and EST. 😊 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 1 minute ago, potatohead said: Tom is making the change. I will be tagging a lot of people to tune in. I am very grateful for your time. Gratitude unnecessary! It is I who am gratitittudinous. 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 The idea that the market is celebrating the re-appointment of Jerome Powell is sickening, disgusting, and disheartening. The man is a financial war criminal, who presided over, supported, enabled, and promoted the greatest moral hazard bubble in history. It encouraged financial chicanenery, discouraged real investment in productive capacity and labor, and punished hard work, honest thrift, and risk aversion. What he did, following on Bernanke's founding of this policy is pure evil. We've only begun to pay the price with massive inflation of housing costs and consumption goods, and the incipient collapse in financial asset prices as the Fed is forced to withdraw its support by high, and understated consumer inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 2-3 day cycle projection 4040, done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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