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Up and Down I-95 Between New York and Philly, Can Bears Take the Wheel? 5/6/22


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The 24 hour ES S&P fugutures ended the first half hour of trading in New York on Monday at 4144. As of nearing 5:00 AM New York time on Friday, they were trading at 4144.  The roller coaster had arrived back at the starting platform. As of the 2 PM hour in New York on Monday, the low was 4062. Last night, the low bar hit 4105, and currently we're seeing 4138. 

The bears may think they've won this. But the bears are like the Phillies and the bulls are like the Yankees and the Mets. In case you don't know, the last time the Phillies won the World Series was 2008, and they haven't been to the playoffs since 2012. The Mets have also been bad, but this year, they are very good, and they came back from a 6 run defecate last night in the top of the ninth to beat the Phillies again. 

The Phillies, who are the historically longest standing single city team in any professional sport in the world, also have the lifetime record for the most losses in any professional sport. I was born in 1950, one month after the Phillies had won the NL pennant, and then got swept in the World Series by the Yankees. It was the first Phillies pennant since 1915.

As a life long Phillies fan, there's a reason why I'm a natural skeptic, and a bit cynical about declaring victory too early, having been accustomed to having defeat snatched from its jaws. So there's a reason why Philadelphians are natural born bears, expecting defeat.  The prize keeps getting snatched away during those few seasons when we come close to grabbing it. And the winners are just 90 miles up the Turnpike. So we go, and watch, and suffer. And when our guys lose again, we boo. 

We have a shot here. It's the eight inning in a tie game. To win, we first need to take out 4105, and then 4062 for the walkoff in the ninth. 

The betting line, aka 5 day cycle projection says 4055. 

On the other hand, if the bulls clear 4141, they'll take the lead, and above 4175, they'll seal yet another victory in this long season. But as Yogi said. It ain't over till it's over. 

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Average hourly earnings inflation still running around 5.5% year to year. Employees are getting killed by CPI running 3% higher and housing inflation running 15% higher. Won't end well for workers or home prices. 

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April Tax Collections Still Running Red Hot Mean That Fed Must Get Tighter

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I am out taking a stroll on the Promenade Des Anglais and I stopped to check the market. My first reaction is, stupid is as stupid does. 

This too shall pass. I'll see you later. 

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Immediately noted the American flag and then as I panned I noticed that I was sitting directly in front of the Polish flag. A bit ironic don't you think?

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