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Target Missed, But Big Fat Base Still Intact 5/5/22

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The hourly ES S&P500 24 hour futures chart failed to hit the 5 day cycle projection of 4325 late yesterday. It also failed to break through the top of what would be an impressive base for a move higher. That level is 4310. The pullback since the high of 4305 has been minimal however. A breakout is still within striking distance and becomes more and more likely the longer the market hangs around above 4250.

That's the number the bears need to retake to have a shot at regaining control of the narrative in the short run. The rationale for the rally is bogus, but it won't matter if they get past 4310. That would have a measured move target of 4550 over the next couple of days 

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Testing. Testing. This is only a test. Do not adjust your set. 

Regular programming will resume upon the completion of this test. 

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The Treasury market doesn't care what Powell says, or how the other markets react. It obeys the law. The Law of Supply and Demand. 

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This is the most important chart illustration in the world because it shows you exactly what's happening to the bond inventories of the Primary Dealers and the bond holdings of every other big bank and anyone who matters on Wall Street. And they are all leveraged to the top of the toilet. 

tvc_9561b9437a9b7c9ebe94a3f14bf61c0b.png

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Where have all the brontoformations gone?
Long time passing.
Where have all the brontoformations gone?
Long time ago.
Where have all the brontoformations gone?
The Fed has piked them every one.
Oh, When will you ever learn?
Oh, When will you ever learn?

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