DrStool Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 The market has broken the latest iteration of its downtrend by moving sideways. Nothing has happened yet, but obviously, something will happen after 2 PM ET today. That's when the Fed will announce a 50 bp increase in the Fed Funds target and the beginning of Quantitative Tightening, QT. They Fed will verify that it intends to reduce the size of the balance sheet by $95 billion per month, getting to that rate of reduction over several months of increases. That's the more important of the two announcements. It has already told the market that this would be coming, through the FOMC meeting minutes, and Powell himself saying so at the last dog and pony show for the Wall Street Captured Media (WSCM). With the market holding above the final sport level on the S&P 500, there's no reason for the Fed to spring any surprises. The Fed doesn't like to surprise the market. Unless it's a happy surprise for the bulls. The bigger news will come from the TBAC whose report to the Secretary of the Treasury is usually issued the day after the Quarterly Refunding announcement. So far, no release, a day late. They may be waiting for the FOMC to go first. This report is important because it will give us the schedule of coupon issuance for the rest of the current quarter and for the third quarter. It will also provide an estimate of net T-bill paydowns for those periods. We already know they'll be big, hence the reason for my ongoing expectation of rallies in stocks and bonds. Don't worry, it's only temporary. Meanwhile the 24 hour ES S&P 500 hourly fugutures look set up to meander between 4210 and 4150 until the Fed does its doody this afternoon. Should they slip out of that range, no doubt the post meeting, and intra dog and pony show moves will bring them back to the range. Then whatever happens after the dog and pony will be reversed tomorrow. My advice. Take a nap. Take a hike. Enjoy the day. Come back tomorrow. The Fed is Tightening Into a Sheet Storm May 2, 2022 Market Outlook Going from Bad to Worse, Fast May 1, 2022 Gold Looks Sick April 26, 2022 Swing Trade Chart Pick Screens Flip Flop April 25, 2022 Ugly Whipsaw Revives Crash Potential in Stocks April 25, 2022 Tons of Cash, Not In Use, Signals this Huge Change in the Market April 23, 2022 Primary Dealers Still Long and Wrong, But A Gift Rally Looms! April 11, 2022 Why March Withholding Taxes Showing Red Hot Economy Is Bearish April 3, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 This guy must follow Lee.... Andy Constan @dampedspring · 3m Facts changed Constan Bottom 2 may not be firm. Andy Constan @dampedspring · May 2 Buy assets in may and go away. I'll release my DSR publicly on Thursday but today was a huge huge deal. Constan bottom 2 the real bottom is in! twitter.com/dampedspring/s… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 TBAC...looks like the Government wants to hold onto more cash? less liquidity for the market. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0755 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 I'll venture my guess and say QT will end in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Jorma said: I'll venture my guess and say QT will end in August. I'll buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Einstein Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 MUSINGS...thought I'd change it up...2021 US growth was .1%...lowest EVER..according to census info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 Surprise. Powell didn't announce his retirement and move a hippie commune in Patagonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 8 hours ago, DrStool said: The market has broken the latest iteration of its downtrend by moving sideways. Nothing has happened yet, but obviously, something will happen after 2 PM ET today. That's when the Fed will announce a 50 bp increase in the Fed Funds target and the beginning of Quantitative Tightening, QT. They Fed will verify that it intends to reduce the size of the balance sheet by $95 billion per month, getting to that rate of reduction over several months of increases. That's the more important of the two announcements. It has already told the market that this would be coming, through the FOMC meeting minutes, and Powell himself saying so at the last dog and pony show for the Wall Street Captured Media (WSCM). With the market holding above the final sport level on the S&P 500, there's no reason for the Fed to spring any surprises. The Fed doesn't like to surprise the market. Unless it's a happy surprise for the bulls. The bigger news will come from the TBAC whose report to the Secretary of the Treasury is usually issued the day after the Quarterly Refunding announcement. So far, no release, a day late. They may be waiting for the FOMC to go first. This report is important because it will give us the schedule of coupon issuance for the rest of the current quarter and for the third quarter. It will also provide an estimate of net T-bill paydowns for those periods. We already know they'll be big, hence the reason for my ongoing expectation of rallies in stocks and bonds. Don't worry, it's only temporary. Meanwhile the 24 hour ES S&P 500 hourly fugutures look set up to meander between 4210 and 4150 until the Fed does its doody this afternoon. Should they slip out of that range, no doubt the post meeting, and intra dog and pony show moves will bring them back to the range. Then whatever happens after the dog and pony will be reversed tomorrow. My advice. Take a nap. Take a hike. Enjoy the day. Come back tomorrow. Howd I Doody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 3 hours ago, DrStool said: Howd I Doody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 And there is the "truth" of the fraudexes >: TNX yield down for the day >:: Rate hike means rate cut, as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 A year ago, the same effing bozo yapping up here was assuring everyone that there wasn't any threat from inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 The financial press at these "availabilities" are the most gutless, cocktail-party invitation-seeking asskissers in the industry. Which is quite the achievement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 5 day cycle projection 4325. Meh. I don't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 Now the important stuff....what is with all these attacks on comedians? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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