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The Sixteenth Wave Is Always a Respite 5/2/22

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The wave pattern has reached the classic 16th wave, so well described by TS Eliot.

In Hurstian terms we see clear on the two hour bars, the 3 day cycle which sometimes combines into a sonnet of six, but then returns to the rhythm of the night.

tvc_887e30caab44958e075b6fbfd1ba99cd.png

As to whether this wee hours holding action can amount to anything, let's zoom in to the one hour bars on the ES S&P 24 hour fuguetures. 

tvc_3ab5056ed248cd0a1f202b79cecf725d.png

It would seem that unless the ES clears 4180 by the first hour of New York trading, then nothing would have happened yet. That would lead me to the conclusion that nothing will.

On the other hand two levels to watch on the downside are 4130 and 4122. If they give way, the bottom would probably drop out. It would not surprise me to see 4000 by day's end. But lest I get carried away, I will stick to the art of centered moving average projection. That calls for 4050-60 as a low on the 5 day cycle. 

And for the big picture:

 

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Speaking of poets I'm often tempted to break out the Yeats, the master of the centered moving average, but I'll hold off a little longer.

Buttcoin is holding on by its fingernails.

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Good morning...

Gold taking another beating, but I'm actually liking the action in the ^HUI.  It's doing its damnedest to hold that 275 lateral support.  I think it wants a bounce, but at the end of the day...235 is beckoning.  As mentioned in the Nothing Gold Can Stay chart....170 is the key area for the GLD.

We also have the TLT making a new low...and ^TNX making a new high.  While the dollar is coming up short, but at least making an attempt at blue sky.  As mentioned on Friday...short lived, if at all is the best case scenario for would-be longs.

The broad markets?

I'm still waiting.  I'd imagine...for the fed at this point.

Although, I saw Doc mention 4130...that was a number I believe has already been mentioned. 

Personally, what I'm watching is...32000(+200/-200) on the DJI and 4000(+10/-10) on the SPX.  Why?  Symmetry.  Although that is a maximum move I think can be expected.

I also like seeing at least the DJI sitting ABOVE the swing...building cause.  This, too me is the sign of a healthy market(decline). 

The SPX and the NDX? 

Getting a head of themselves...

Best,

TCG

 

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Back of the envelope proctology points to 3500 as the next target (1.61 x move from January peak to today’s new 52 week low) subtracted from the March high.

(Oops 4056 was the intraday 52 week low.  Apologies to TS Elliott and Primary Wave 3 of 1)

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Last week I mentioned I’d be coming up with a small blitz of DJI comparison charts with a few twists & turns thrown in for good measure.  As I was driving this weekend...I decided to go ahead and just start with the twists & turns. 

This chart was inspired by a trip to KANSAS

 

Best,

TCG

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4 minutes ago, Jimi said:

I'm old enough to remember last Monday when the Euro traded with a 108-handle...

I'm old enough to remember buying a bunch of them at 1.11. 

Because I got sceert. 

But it only hurts a little. I still hold plenty of doodahs,, got more on the way, and don't need more geuros until 12 July. 

Proper your a peein puts the day before the month. 

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14 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I'm old enough to remember buying a bunch of them at 1.11. 

Because I got sceert. 

But it only hurts a little. I still hold plenty of doodahs,, got more on the way, and don't need more geuros until 12 July. 

Proper your a peein puts the day before the month. 

It's insane how the rivets seems to be popping off the global economy all over the place.

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I'm editing this post.  What I mentioned I would like to happen came to pass as I was typing.

Kinda creepy...

I'll just say this.  The positive turn in the markets actually gives me some relief.  We want back and fill, not runaway at this stage.  It was starting to look unhealthy there for a minute.

Best,

TCG

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You know.  I look down here at the bottom and I see no other posters(besides myself) in here all day?  Yet you gentlemen post...are your names not showing up on the screen?  Are you hiding your names?  Didn't the forum used to also show visitors?  No visitors? 

Everyone's got better things to do today, huh?

Hm.  Interesting.

TCG

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4 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said:

You know.  I look down here at the bottom and I see no other posters(besides myself) in here all day?  Yet you gentlemen post...are your names not showing up on the screen?  Are you hiding your names?  Didn't the forum used to also show visitors?  No visitors? 

Everyone's got better things to do today, huh?

Ok.  Cool.

TCG

I have been here off and on today....This is what I see right now

rb.JPG.96b5f0576d428de9869d7858f0742899.JPG

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