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Stock Market Again on the Brink 4/29/22

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Yesterday's spike high at 3 PM on the ES S&P 24 hour futures hourly chart exceeded the last short cycle high by 1 cent. That's right. .01. That's how traders signal each other that this is not the end. It's not the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning. 

Now this morning we have a domed house pattern, with the futures pulling back to a support band here at 7 AM New York Time. I think that an hourly close below 4239 in the next hour or later would signal that we should call Roy Orbison. 

That said, we'll probably see one more bounce off the 3 day trend channel. It's now approaching 4230 over the next couple of hours. If that's weak, kiss it goodbye. If it holds, look for it to mush around between here and 4300 for a day or two. 

tvc_5a8724f4b0ff22bd3260efc691a85e09.png

There's no conviction either way here in the very short run. I certainly don't have any either. Longer term, we all know where this is going. 

And for the big picture:

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me

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Good morning gentlemen...

I would have preferred 34200 and 4310 were nailed, but life isn't a textbook.

As AMZN was headed toward the abyss(swing point)....yesterday offered it a lifeline(stick save) and the numbers last night took it all away.  AAPL is in the same boat, although...it looks fine right now...for now.  Mr. Softy is feeling the same way, but looking a little weaker. 

 

We can talk about stocks in general, but I feel the important stuff has already been discussed(portrayed).

Last evening I spent the night taking a closer look at the UUP and the TLT. 

Now...during 1998 to the 2011 period I monitored bonds and the dollar on an almost hourly basis.  Since then?  Not so much.  Although, I tossed the UUP back into my rotation as I dug an old student out of some serious trouble he had gotten himself into over the last two years.  I find it quite amusing that what we're dealing with here in thie right side of this chart, I'm still contending with currently...from the right side of the chart.  To say I know this pattern well...is an understatement.

I've been here before...I've sung this song and I've danced this dance.

 

Here is my short takeaway.  At the moment.

I'd like to see the rally in the UUP halted right here - as soon as today.  Then...I feel usage of 27 as the pivot in a correction would set up a secondary advance in a 1:1 compression as large as the first leg off the 1.06.21 lows.  Yes.  That large...even perhaps a little larger.  1.25:1 would "match" the numbers I've already come up with.

Now...no chart yet.  Because, while  I could post a current chart of my ideas.  I'm still tossing them around the grey matter...they're not fully developed quite yet.  Always best to let these things "cook on the stove" for awhile.  Then a chart(or three) will be forthcoming.

I just wanted to mention it now...it's smeling a little toppy.  While it can stretch a little further...as long as it stays under 28...it will be a benefit to those interested in participating in the next advance.  AKA, it might provide a nice safe entry point.

This current pattern has my interest.  Going forward...I will be monitoring and commenting on this closely.

The TLT?   I'm having a hard time believing that if the TLT takes out the swing at 116...something doesn't break somewhere.   It's beyond that point where you're looking at something "Secular" in nature, we're already probing into THAT territory right now.

Best,

TCG

 

 

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Let's see...that peak in the SPX...that was on 3.29 and today is? Hm. Interesting.

For those who don't have the CoinGuy Decoder Ring handy...

My comment from this morning is that I believe we're going to be playing from the top as well as the bottom of the swing(for some issues) for a short amount of time...stalling our descent.

Why is this?   I think by next Friday that question will have been answered.  No one here needs any further education as to just how serious of a problem we find ourselves in - right now.

In short...we build cause. 

Then plunge into Doc's black hole.

Therefore...

I am still...waiting on news.

The news that will carry us over the threshold(IE: AMZN chart above).

Patience...is the word of the day.

I'm going to say it again.  Slowing down all decisions is the best way to play the next "few years". 

The long game is the winner here.

A game I know well.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

BTC(and ETH) teasing us again.  It's not like they're sitting above a pool of water filled with sharks or anything.  How silly.  The water's warm...all is well...dive on in. 

Psst...I hear they're giving free DogeCoin to the first 1000 jumpers.

 

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When 33200 and 4160 fell.  Serious acceleration.

As we head into the close, I don't think I took my own window serious enough.

 

We're teetering on a very large edge.  Ever had that feeling as you looked down from a very high place, almost as if you're going over?  I think the market felt that...and popped back into the close.

 

Until Monday then...

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

I'll just drop this right here...

 

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