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Dead Wrong, Two Days Straight April 22, 2022

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Well Jorma...

If I was forced to vote for a moonshot to a million or a trip to zero...I'd probably take the downside slide.  A million in BTC would disrupt the current financial order standard deviations from the status quo.  The government won't stand for this type of competition.  There is no honor among thieves.  Even at 100k...they'd be screaming for more regulation AND heavy taxation. Let alone a million.

Although, left to my own devices...

I'm a strict technician...fundamentals don't come into play in my own analysis.  Period. 

Emotions? They're for the other guy. 

I just roll my nictitating membrane back and...take my shot. 

I'll leave those with fancy degrees to argue the particulars.

I see 10k(+1k/-5k) in my head and I'm rolling with it.  What is the analysis that led me this conclusion?

Experience.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

Doc we've taken out the 4.18 swing on the SPX.  This is starting to look like "the beginning" of a direct assault on 4200 here?

From yesterday.

"The Nasdaq is trading one step ahead of the SPX".

Let the pattern do the heavy lifting...THIS.  Is where behavioral analysis shines.

Every student I taught ended up having to deal with one problem...

Belief.

814397716_LetthePatterndotheheavylifiting-April222022.thumb.jpg.c2657c898a4df3e670ef888c6081e279.jpg

 

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The Dow is sitting right at it's April 12 swing. If it pops...further acceleration could ensue.

1409530440_DJI4.12Swing.thumb.jpg.3a5f183b55c9d03153dc7faa8f226ba0.jpg

UPDATE:

It's now been penetrated. As of 1:15 P.M. CST, I'm seeing no acceleration. The trading band has become real tight, could be a small reversal right here. IF they don't accelerate, they may attempt to park it above the swing point.  If It builds cause there....then an easy 1k+ crash is coming.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

No comments on SH until it has cracked 15.25 and held a retest or two.  Then...I'll be talking about upside targets.  Until then 15.25 is your number.

 

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Uh...yeah.

Nothing to see here, just move along now.  No gawkers....keep moving.

1371401834_Nope...nothinggoingonhere.thumb.jpg.f2dd2663467204e8b1364cf028f801cb.jpg

 

This is reminding me of the good ol' days.

I must say it again.

The Greatest Bear Market in History.

No one showed up.

When they do.

I'll be long gone...

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

I'm seeing an attempt at more downside. 

Bands?  We don't need no stinking BANDS!

Smile.

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I saw that...looks like they're having a bit of trouble.  The big guns like the last 1/2 hour, maybe a government sized pocketbook might turn the tide?  Again...I'd like to see them park it above that swing on the DJI.

In the meantime.  My old neighbor and friend.  253k is the measurement of the first decline.

CAT.  If it looks like a ----- and smells like a -----, then it's probably a -----.

You know I am getting a touch of Ol's Timers at my age.  Can you remind me what day crashes start on?

Best,

TCG

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18 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Commence Friday PM short covering sequence. 

3.2.1...

ya Never know...........I heard a rumour that Flo-Bot had Montezumas Revenge last night.....

by the look of today's action, it seems plausable.

The spx bounced off 4280 (Do the 2's - 8's work for the SPX?) (xx20/xx80)

>: Do margin calls factor in anymore?

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MK.  No, only the ^DJI.   The ^GSPC has its own rhythm.   Each issue has their own heartbeat.

I really like what I'm seeing here.  Again.  Would prefer to be back above the  swing at the close.

Why?  Because THIS is the rally, if you catch my drift.  We build cause at the swing and it will crack hard.

EDIT:  They're stumbling.  This is a fight right here and now...

Exciting stuff.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

The ^HUI is doing the same.  It want's 300, then 290.  It's pausing just above the 3.29 doji.

BTC? - Stick save for now...stay tuned.

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26 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said:

MK.  No, only the ^DJI.   The ^GSPC has its own rhythm.   Each issue has their own heartbeat.

OK, Thanks for the info.

looks like the Dow is trying the 33800

I also wonder if End of Day Margin Calls happen/work differently than 10-20 yrs ago.

because of BTC/Meme/Robinood "acct. types", et al.

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Euro will end the week right about $1.08. To buy or not to buy, that is the question. 

From the South of France,

Bonne nuit et

Bonne chance! 

 

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MK...

Human behavior?  Never changes...

If you haven't read "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds".  It's worth a look.

Have a good weekend everyone, see you on Monday.

TCG

oh...and...

I'll park this right here.

You can't trade it...if you can't SEE it.

1792285661_Itsabouttogetugly.thumb.jpg.f463b858805ac64724bc88c0f3f10b60.jpg

Did my lessons on inversions fall on deaf ears?  Plenty of inversions here.  Always study those inversions.  This chart is truly a piece of ART.  Can you see the rev H&S hiding on the left side of the CAT formation?  The head is centered on 10.06.21 if that will help you.

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2 hours ago, The CoinGuy said:

MK...

Human behavior?  Never changes...

Has "Market" human behavior changed...(I think the younger generation is different) (all generations are?)

Central bank behavior has changed in the last 1-2 decades.

 

However,

I was thinking deeper on the "Financial Cross-Talk" / "Bleed-Over effect"

specifically regarding default/margin call (are the big guys still TBTF?)

 

Just thinking out loud......but......given the behavior of Central Banks world-wide......

How do/will/if margin calls (a)effect the different types of markets/indexes/securities/the brokerage houses........

regarding each type of "financal product" (Cross Contamination and correlation)

 

- equity - bond - commodities - crypto

- cash/mm - currency

- derivatives - options

- pensions

- et. al.

 

Way Too Much "Musing" for a Late Friday.......Have a good weekend to all........

 

>: Hobson's Choice For All........

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