DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 A 3 day cycle up phase has now been flat on the ES S&P 24 hour futures hourly chart for more than a day. Flat up phases imply sharp down phases. Of course, they don't always work out that way. Sometimes the subsequent down phase just continues sideways in a dead zone until there's some impetus. We expect liquidity impetus this week as tax receipts drive T-bill paydowns. While most of it flows into money market funds, it does force some cash into the pockets of some dealers and other equity investors who had held the expiring bills. Whatever it is, at the margin, it's usually enough for a seasonal rally in stocks. Of course, I can't remember the last time this happened in a draconian Fed tightening cycle, and I'm pretty old. So let's just honor the charts. The rules still rule. Rule One, Don't fight the Fed. Rule Two, The trend is your friend. AKA Don't fight the tape. Right now, the tape looks like caca. Meanwhile, here's a wildly bullish chart. That is until you look at the ticker and see that it's the chart of the 10 year yield. Therefore, it's the inverse of price. The weekly chart of the TLT, 20 year Treasury bond ETF gives you some perspective. Sell Gold in May and Go Away? The big picture: The Dow, Macro Liquidity, and the Fate of Russian Generals April 18, 2022 Stocks Are Not Breaking Bad April 16, 2022 Sell Gold in May and Go Away? April 19, 2022 Primary Dealers Still Long and Wrong, But A Gift Rally Looms! April 11, 2022 Why March Withholding Taxes Showing Red Hot Economy Is Bearish April 3, 2022 Fragile and Dangerous Semi Blind Spot March 28, 2022 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 For pattern recognition purposes one should note that with a descending line the right side is no longer necessarily the head end but rather could be the tail end of the animal, bronto or whatever. Of course here, more than any other place, we are familiar with with what happens at the tail end. Currently I am not seeing a pattern but my pattern recognition skills are weak. I'll leave that up to the artists and masters. Then too, how quickly the Carl Malden pattern has been forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 53 minutes ago, Jorma said: For pattern recognition purposes one should note that with a descending line the right side is no longer necessarily the head end but rather could be the tail end of the animal, bronto or whatever. Brilliant! 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 OK. That's bullish. Should we be surprised? Swing Trade Chart Pick Screens Flip to Buy Side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 4460 is now the number to watch. If they take that out, it would measure to 4560. If they roll over below that, then they'll take a dump right back to 4360, like explosive diarrhea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 2-3 day cycle projection 4450, done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 5 day cycle projection 4460. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 Is the market open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 Bears staggering around the ring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jimi said: Bears staggering around the ring.... Nah. They saw this coming. Or should have if they've been following the right metrics. Ahem. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/technical-market-timing/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 If anything, the market is weaker than it should be given the liquidity and technical tailwinds this month. It bodes ill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: 4460 is now the number to watch. If they take that out, it would measure to 4560. If they roll over below that, then they'll take a dump right back to 4360, like explosive diarrhea. Still valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, DrStool said: Nah. They saw this coming. Or should have if they've been following the right metrics. Ahem. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/technical-market-timing/ I almost wrote, "If only someone had warned us...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 That's write. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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