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It's the Most Bullishful Time of the Year 4/14/22

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It's that time of year market fans. Spring flowers are blooming, the eggs are rolling, and the matzah is cracking. Pass the chicken fat. We will now sell a brate the resurrection. Of the stock market.

The liquidity will be flowing into the markets in a gusher over the next 4 weeks. But here on The Stool, we concern ourselves only with today. And the pattern fits the narrative. Up, up and away. 

The ES S&P futures have a 5 day cycle projection of 4470-75. If they clear that it would create a nifty bottom pattern that would measure to around 4565. If they don't clear it early, stick around.  

Trend resistance comes in at 4453 in the opening half hour in New York. That's the line they need to clear to get it going. If they fail early, maybe we get a pullback to 4430 or so, but I have no doubt that they will try again, and ultimately succeed. 

The really big trendline comes in at 4505 at the end of this pre holiday session. I don't think they'll clear that, but what do I know. 

tvc_a026381678f55743c495391fdf3d4af8.png

But wait. There's MORE! 

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The pullback in bond yields has reached criticality. I think they're going lower in the short run. Once again, it's a GTFO gift. Understand why and know what's coming next by following here.

tvc_7382a6bee0987608260326d4a96b9bd7.png 

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In the current conditions of high uncertainty, we will maintain optionality, gradualism and flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy…. Inflation increased to 7.5 per cent in March, from 5.9 per cent in February…. The upside risks surrounding the inflation outlook have also intensified, especially in the near term. The risks to the medium-term inflation outlook include above-target moves in inflation expectations, higher than anticipated wage rises and a durable worsening of supply-side conditions…. We are very attentive to the current uncertainties and are closely monitoring the incoming data in relation to their implications for the medium-term inflation outlook. The calibration of our policies will remain data-dependent and reflect our evolving assessment of the outlook. We stand ready to adjust all of our instruments within our mandate, incorporating flexibility if warranted, to ensure that inflation stabilises at our two per cent target over the medium term.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2022/html/ecb.is220414~fa5c8fe142.en.html

Words… words… more words….

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17 minutes ago, Jimi said:

In the current conditions of high uncertainty, we will maintain optionality, gradualism and flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy…. Inflation increased to 7.5 per cent in March, from 5.9 per cent in February…. The upside risks surrounding the inflation outlook have also intensified, especially in the near term. The risks to the medium-term inflation outlook include above-target moves in inflation expectations, higher than anticipated wage rises and a durable worsening of supply-side conditions…. We are very attentive to the current uncertainties and are closely monitoring the incoming data in relation to their implications for the medium-term inflation outlook. The calibration of our policies will remain data-dependent and reflect our evolving assessment of the outlook. We stand ready to adjust all of our instruments within our mandate, incorporating flexibility if warranted, to ensure that inflation stabilises at our two per cent target over the medium term.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2022/html/ecb.is220414~fa5c8fe142.en.html

Words… words… more words….

was that written by Greenspan?

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1 hour ago, Jimi said:

In the current conditions of high uncertainty, we will maintain optionality, gradualism and flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy…. Inflation increased to 7.5 per cent in March, from 5.9 per cent in February…. The upside risks surrounding the inflation outlook have also intensified, especially in the near term. The risks to the medium-term inflation outlook include above-target moves in inflation expectations, higher than anticipated wage rises and a durable worsening of supply-side conditions…. We are very attentive to the current uncertainties and are closely monitoring the incoming data in relation to their implications for the medium-term inflation outlook. The calibration of our policies will remain data-dependent and reflect our evolving assessment of the outlook. We stand ready to adjust all of our instruments within our mandate, incorporating flexibility if warranted, to ensure that inflation stabilises at our two per cent target over the medium term.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2022/html/ecb.is220414~fa5c8fe142.en.html

Words… words… more words….

Charlie Chaplin said that a long time ago........along the lines of "tighten the belt"

 

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well dang. 

I got everything completely wrong today. 

And I love it!

Have a wonderful holiday! 

See you Monday! 

 

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THE FED's TRASH TALKING QT

The Fed will continue to trash talk QT while continuing to print to suppress interest rates.

Why!!!

Well think of the FED as a poker player with a losing hand.

i.e. whatever action the FED takes long bonds must fall in value.....

Mr market has a winning hand but the FED is trying through the use of trash talking QT to get them to fold.

By folding I mean getting Mr Market to hold onto their losing long bond position.

In this case to hold (long bonds) is to fold.

And to fold (sell long bonds) is to hold.

Mr Market needs to call the FED's bluff.

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