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DrStool

Now More Than Ever

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absolutely incredible that one can be talking about blow off tops this deep into the mother of all bear markets. IT is beyond belief.

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I'm really getting sick of this market. The NDX should not be up like this for so very long (half a year now) with such high valuations and rapidly deteriorating fundamentals. Yet, it keeps on ramping -- or rather, holding what it ramped before. It's as if bad news moves the market up. Sure, most people would think that good earnings, cheap oil, low unemployment, etc. are what the market wants. But what the market really wants is bad news, as this generates negativity which justifies ever higher prices because such negativity is arguably "too extreme" at any moment.... *head spinning*

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I mentioned yesterday a bit after the close that IBM and

 

MSFT exhibited a lot of strength in their volumes, reversal

 

and outside day patterns. Also mentioned my plan to

 

buy these as a hedge which I did and which saved me

 

several thousand dollars in unrealized losses by days end

 

today.

 

I mention this because one of the primary problems on

 

the board seems to be that there seems to be a majority

 

personality that tends to personify the mkts as a living

 

breathing entity that is probably: republican, stupid, corrupt,

 

clueless, immoral, mindlessly bullish, couldn't trade it's way

 

out of a wet paper bag, etc, etc, etc.

 

And the board tends to think of itself as the opposite of all

 

of the above, or "liberal and elite" to put a term on it.

 

Being liberal and elite makes one very good about finding

 

fault with everyone else (kinda like the French) and as such

 

can really get one blindsided by such idealogical

 

constraints when days like today occur!

 

And here's the point:

 

An attitude like this (or the other extreme) is a near

 

guarantee of FINANCIAL FAILURE in the trading

 

arena.

 

So what they're just a bunch of dumb bulls, you just

 

got CRUSHED!

 

Good traders always keep in mind that trading is a

 

DEFENSIVE game first and foremost!

 

Days like today drove that point home hard!

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Back to the drawing board. Got stopped out of some positions at 823. IMHO, we might get to 850 on this move.

 

I'll be busy trying to configure this new computer so I won't have time tonight to berate anyone.

 

See ya Tomorrow.

Ditto :lol:

 

Good thing for stops, still came out ahead bigtime though with plenty-o ammo to fight another day!

 

Just in time for vacation next week too - now I have no worries. Probably won't miss much as OpX usually goes nowhere anyway. :grin:

 

Perhaps the May/June/July --> Nov decline will be "the big one". We'll see.

 

Orgy Tops are easy to spot, really thought this pig would hit deeper Dover Sole before significant rally, but hey that may still be the case but I need a break for now.

 

Market always gives you another opportunity.

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Back to the drawing board. Got stopped out of some positions at 823. IMHO, we might get to 850 on this move.

 

Ditto. Stopped out at 823, now completely in cash (for the first time since January).

 

Looks like Buddha's gonna be right again -- up into OpEx. As of right now, I'm looking to get back into my shorts in the 850-870 SPX range. Today's action increased the short-side risks substantially... of course, there's always the possibility it was a fake-out -- but hanging in right now is just gambling/wishful thinking, imo. Best to retreat while your casualties are minimal and reasses the strategy. As of this moment, late next week looks better for shorts. Of course, that could always change between now and then. <_<

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Jeez, Pile. I was actually typing my response when you posted yours, so I hadn't read it until after posting. Great minds and all that. :D

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I mentioned yesterday a bit after the close that IBM and

 

MSFT exhibited a lot of strength in their volumes, reversal

 

and outside day patterns. Also mentioned my plan to

 

buy these as a hedge which I did and which saved me

 

several thousand dollars in unrealized losses by days end

 

today.

 

I mention this because one of the primary problems on

 

the board seems to be that there seems to be a majority

 

personality that tends to personify the mkts as a living

 

breathing entity that is probably: republican, stupid, corrupt,

 

clueless, immoral, mindlessly bullish, couldn't trade it's way

 

out of a wet paper bag, etc, etc, etc.

 

And the board tends to think of itself as the opposite of all

 

of the above, or "liberal and elite" to put a term on it.

 

Being liberal and elite makes one very good about finding

 

fault with everyone else (kinda like the French) and as such

 

can really get one blindsided by such idealogical

 

constraints when days like today occur!

 

And here's the point:

 

An attitude like this (or the other extreme) is a near

 

guarantee of FINANCIAL FAILURE in the trading

 

arena.

 

So what they're just a bunch of dumb bulls, you just

 

got CRUSHED!

 

Good traders always keep in mind that trading is a

 

DEFENSIVE game first and foremost!

 

Days like today drove that point home hard!

This is a political rant.

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I'm completely out. Stopped out on two/thirds early this morning. Closed out the rest later. Tried a nibble . . . it bit back. Made a profit but, not like the paper profit I had a month ago. Still here to short another day though. Judgement day deferred. May scalp a little dong. Depends on my work load at the Rock Quarry. Lately it has been tough to stay on top of things closely and I would want to do that donging, even in this environment.

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W.D. Gann said there are times when a man can make money and there are times when he can't no matter what.. One should wait for his time to come..

 

It's so true for me.. :(

 

The following is so scary, take it FWIW.. Don't shoot the messenger..

 

 

This is from Linda Rascke ::

 

Nasdaq Point and Figure chart

 

1047648857.png

 

 

Earlier, we posted a chart of a LOW ADX which highlighted a long sideways line. Point and Figure is a superior methodology to get a "count" giving a price objective for a move in the event of a legitimate BREAKOUT. You can see that the market has not truly broken out yet, but when it does, the count projects a move to 1435.

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This is a political rant.

 

Maybe. But his (or her) point does seem to be the market and how attitudes can impact trading decisions. I'd allow it, but I'm not the judge. :wink2:

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This is a political rant.

If you can't tolerate this kind of comment here, I'm afraid this forum will lose its value.

 

(DrStool @ Mar 13 2003, 04:30 PM)

I spent a lot of time deleting posts today. Once thing I don't want is criticism of, or attacks on the expressions of other stoolies. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and everyone is free to express themselves in a creative way.

 

No one is right all the time. Give people a break. If you don't like the way they express themselves, skip their posts. Easy!

 

There's one sheriff and a couple of deputies around here. Leave the policing to them.  

 

Later.  

 

Why that heavy hand? After all let stoolies vent some frustration is part of forums' purpose. Who wants to post to some places where no one is going to read? This site is losing indenpent voices, which is not good in my opinion. Anyway, it's your site, I'll shut up if you don't like it.

 

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Jeez, Pile.  I was actually typing my response when you posted yours, so I hadn't read it until after posting.  Great minds and all that.   :D

What a goof.

 

I don't play the game of second-guessing and covering before things happen, I just let myself get stopped out. :P

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Again from Linda Raschke :

 

Nasdaq - LOW Daily ADX

 

1047630952.png

 

 

Look how LOW the Daily ADX is on this Nasdaq index! LOW ADX's highlight a long line. The longer the line, the greater the trend move that can come out of that line. This market has the potential for a SIGNIFICANT upside sustainable rally!

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W.D. Gann said there are times when a man can make money and there are times when he can't no matter what.. One should wait for his time to come..

 

It's so true for me.. :(

 

The following is so scary, take it FWIW.. Don't shoot the messenger..

 

 

This is from Linda Rascke ::

 

Nasdaq Point and Figure chart

 

1047648857.png

 

 

Earlier, we posted a chart of a LOW ADX which highlighted a long sideways line. Point and Figure is a superior methodology to get a "count" giving a price objective for a move in the event of a legitimate BREAKOUT. You can see that the market has not truly broken out yet, but when it does, the count projects a move to 1435.

I'm not up on my p&f charting, but it looks like the NDX is still in a column of zeros even after today- no p&f buy signal yet. I assume I'm missing something- what's so scary about it?

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