DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 That's the 5 day cycle projection on the ES, S&P 500 futures, this morning at 10:30 AM in Western Europe, 4:30 AM, in New York, before the first traders are stirring their coffee. To get there, the bulls first must clear resistance indicated at 4595-4600. If they can't, and this thing starts to roll over from there or below, bears should not rejoice. Support projects to around 4570-75 in the early going in regular NY trading hours. If that gets taken out, then we can talk. For now, the bulls have the upper hand until proven otherwise. Although, this gives me the expectation that the bears may yet prevail. I know -- mealy mouthed, mushy, non forecast. For more on the bigger picture: Holding Longs, Adding Shorts April 4, 2022 Market Still in “Fool The Majority” Mode April 3, 2022 Why March Withholding Taxes Showing Red Hot Economy Is Bearish April 3, 2022 Gold Can’t Hold March 29, 2022 Fragile and Dangerous Semi Blind Spot March 28, 2022 Screens Be Nimble, Screens Be Quick – They Were! March 27, 2022 Here’s Why This Will Be “The Rally that Fools the Majority” March 26, 2022 Seven and a Half Weeks of Bullish Liquidity Ahead March 19, 2022 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 Meanwhile, back at the bond market, the chart of the 10 year yield looks bullish as hell. Bullish for yield, bearish as hell for bond prices. Below is the weekly chart of the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF. Oh, the humanity. This, ultimately is bearish as hell for everything. Historically, stocks have lagged bonds by 4-6 months. But this bond bear market has been going on for 20 months. When will it matter? Soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 Meanwhile, crypto Tro lo lo. Until BTC breaks 44 oh oh oh. Finally when will the US Dollar bears have their day? Maybe soon. A couple of intermediate term cycle projections point to 99.75 on the DXY. But then again, the dollar has a history of interminably long trading ranges. Even after it hits that target, a bear market is not a given. Oh, excuse me, just one more thing, if I may. Will gold ever emerge from this base? Click here to follow along and find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 As pre market trading begins in New York, we arrive at a trendline of truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 Thing of byootay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 5, 2022 Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 Lael Brainard rips the market a new one - bond yields exploding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 No one predicted it. No one could have predicted it. LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, sandy beach said: Lael Brainard rips the market a new one - bond yields exploding up. There was nothing new in what she said. Powell has said it. The minutes said it. Fact that QT is coming has been well telegraphed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 Maybe this was correct. Holding Longs, Adding Shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 Obviously, or perhaps not to most people, a trillion in Fed holdings rolling off over the next year would add a trillion to Treasury and MBS supply, while those rolloffs simultaneously reduce the amount of money in the market available to absorb that supply. Needless to say, they may start this program, but it will end quicker than it begins. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted April 5, 2022 Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 this movement in bongs is raping the savers. but panic not. easy powell will come to the rescue once the world recession ensues. bongs for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted April 5, 2022 Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, BurntOnce said: this movement in bongs is raping the savers. but panic not. easy powell will come to the rescue once the world recession ensues. bongs for everyone! Low yields rape the traditional savers........Money mkt, CD, etc Savers who invest in bond "Funds" is another story........ Maybe everyone will feel better come 4-20.......🪴 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 Zero interest rates raped savers. Savers don't own bonds. Investors, banks, and speculators own bonds. Nobody knows it yet, but the banking system is being hollowed out. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 I address this directly in this report. Fragile and Dangerous Semi Blind Spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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