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4625 4/5/22

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That's the 5 day cycle projection on the ES, S&P 500 futures, this morning at 10:30 AM in Western Europe, 4:30 AM, in New York, before the first traders are stirring their coffee. To get there, the bulls first must clear resistance indicated at 4595-4600. 

If they can't, and this thing starts to roll over from there or below, bears should not rejoice. Support projects to around 4570-75 in the early going in regular NY trading hours. If that gets taken out, then we can talk. For now, the bulls have the upper hand until proven otherwise. 

Although, this gives me the expectation that the bears may yet prevail

I know -- mealy mouthed, mushy, non forecast.   

tvc_2c9ac39ec1f9101ffab1bd23d3837418.png

For more on the bigger picture:

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Meanwhile, back at the bond market, the chart of the 10 year yield looks bullish as hell. Bullish for yield, bearish as hell for bond prices.

tvc_c259ddddd73826e87c404bf48e760e96.png

 

Below is the weekly chart of the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF. Oh, the humanity. 

tvc_e302285ae3210bd03b55683a53e08807.png

This, ultimately is bearish as hell for everything. Historically, stocks have lagged bonds by 4-6 months. But this bond bear market has been going on for 20 months. When will it matter? Soon.

 

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Meanwhile, crypto Tro lo lo.  Until BTC breaks 44 oh oh oh. 

tvc_7555b08c09996fd0bdef974b824225b7.png

Finally when will the US Dollar bears have their day? Maybe soon. A couple of intermediate term cycle projections point to 99.75 on the DXY.

But then again, the dollar has a history of interminably long trading ranges. Even after it hits that target, a bear market is not a given. 

tvc_7a664d0eaf8240bf379d344c8ca61867.png

 

Oh, excuse me, just one more thing, if I may. Will gold ever emerge from this base? 

tvc_0f92c1b8f377031eed43e29b8148c0b1.png

Click here to follow along and find out. 

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17 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

Lael Brainard rips the market a new one - bond yields exploding up.

There was nothing new in what she said. Powell has said it. The minutes said it. Fact that QT is coming has been well telegraphed.   

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Obviously, or perhaps not to most people, a trillion in Fed holdings rolling off over the next year would add a trillion to Treasury and MBS supply, while those rolloffs simultaneously reduce the amount of money in the market available to absorb that supply. 

Needless to say, they may start this program, but it will end quicker than it begins. 

https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/

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2 minutes ago, BurntOnce said:

this movement in bongs is raping the savers. but panic not. easy powell will come to the rescue once the world recession ensues. bongs for everyone!

Low yields rape the traditional savers........Money mkt, CD, etc

Savers who invest in bond "Funds" is another story........

Maybe everyone will feel better come 4-20.......🪴

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