DrStool Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 I've just moved into a new apartment in Cannes, France. It will be my next to last move. At the end of this month, I hope to be in the place I just put under contract in Nice 10 days ago. So today, I'll make this short and sweet for now, and I'll check back in with you a bit later. So far today, we have.... Nothing. That's right. Nothing. The ES S&P futures have gone dead flat since the NY close yesterday. The sideways move has brought the price hard against the uptrend channel that it bounced off yesterday. This is the 4th touch of the lower channel bound in the 5 days this channel has been active. The ES would need to end the first hour of New York trading below 4600 to break it. That line will be at 4610 at the end of New York trading. If they're above that, the trend goes on. It would call for at least a test of the high at 4633. If that's cleared, I would look for 4650 next. We've been in a 5 day cycle down phase since 3 PM on Wednesday. Flat down phases usually that the following up phase will be strong. Never short a dull market, right? Gold Can’t Hold March 29, 2022 Fragile and Dangerous Semi Blind Spot March 28, 2022 Screens Be Nimble, Screens Be Quick – They Were! March 27, 2022 Here’s Why This Will Be “The Rally that Fools the Majority” March 26, 2022 Seven and a Half Weeks of Bullish Liquidity Ahead March 19, 2022 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 Food for Thought, Chapter 2... I wonder. Oh, how I wonder. If the market could speak to us...what would she be saying. Perhaps, if a person is listening hard enough, she is speaking wisdom...but we just can't HEAR it. The Window closes at 1.24 A.M. CST. The CoinGuy oh...and... I posted this chart above to illustrate a point. I mentioned the "Window of Opportunity" opened on the 30th and closed at the end of the 31st, yet we had an energy spike when the market opened on the 29th. For me...that means I need to watch as we come OUT of the "Window of Opportunity" just as we came IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 ITS ALL ABOUT THE DEFAULT EVENT HORIZON RATE I dont think there is a stock market level that will trigger the FED put. 3700 or whatever...... (there is still 900 points to go before this is reached). I do think there is a level on the ten year treasury rate that will trigger the put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 Launchpad formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 I've updated my thoughts in the original post above. I was going to wait, but someone might find it advantageous. From my perspective...it's all poetry from here. Frost had it right...Nothing Gold Can Stay. When the window closes...I'll be tossing on the Captain's hat. I take no prisoners, all...walk the plank. Me included if I somehow bungle it. Smile. In closing, thought I'd mention...The Flag in the ^HUI is starting to look quite ripe. Here is the 30 min. Regards, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 Now it looks like a top, but it needs to take out 4571. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 Die, pig. Die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 initial 5 day cycle projection 4560, hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, DrStool said: initial 5 day cycle projection 4560, hit. Let's take a hit of some lower numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 Expire, you miserable mud-wallowing porcine pen-thing. Expire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Jimi said: Let's take a hit of some lower numbers. 4550.... hit! 4540... hit! I want to see more hits than in the Cardinals-Nationals game last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted April 4, 2022 Report Share Posted April 4, 2022 MORE THOUGHTS ON THE FED PUT As I have said before I dont think there is a stock level trigger. But there is a ten year treasury rate trigger...... I think its in the 4-5% band somewhere. As that is the where danger zone for large scale corporate default begins. Tripple Bs would then yield 6%. The FED will draw the line at large scale corporate defaults. The tripple B crowd must be protected. The FED doesnt like rate rises at all because all the debt in the system means it will create real damage. The SPAC crowd have largely been eliminated. We have seen the reaction to synthetic QT and it had not been pretty. Not pretty at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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