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Stocks at the End of the Line 3/24/22

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Or is this just the middle of nowhere. In the very short term view that we take here at The Stool, that's exactly right. We don't know, and neither do they.  Today is a day to sit and watch the grass grow, the paint dry, the ice melt. Whatever suits your fancy. I have nothing useful to add. 

I look at this chart, and I see perfect neutrality. One thing we do know is that moves that start from neutral on cycle oscillators tend to be extended. On price analysis, we don't have a tell on which direction that might be. Time analysis however, suggests that the 5 day cycle should be headed into a down phase. Possibly a head fake to the upside first with the 2-3 day cycle providing the emphasis for that.. 

That's my best guess for now. Meanwhile, all trading in the 4453-4523 range is the paint drying zone. If the odds favor the downside, then they need to break 4453 to prove it. Otherwise, the uptrend still rules. 

tvc_d525caad537863ec90147c766c751544.png

 

For the big picture. 

 

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Good morning...

The time frames you're dealing with are too short for me to get a grasp of.  To be honest, I wouldn't be able to handle the stress levels.  I've always been a long-term trend player. 18 months...is usually a minimum, but I'll trade down in the 6 to 9 month time period if I see something that interests me.

I like how the DJIA closed, but that old saying always haunts me in the back of my mind. "One day, does not a new trend make."  I'll be looking for follow-thru.  I always expect the S&P and the Nasdaq to lead or lag, usually lag...as of late. I get excited though, when it's a 1 day or 7 day lag(if you recall my points from yesterday).

I think from March 31st to May 1st...it's going to be interesting.

There are other sectors that I feel want to travel with the broader markets, yet they don't seem ready to turn quite yet.  One of them I'm watching is BTC and I feel it could dance around in here, even up to that small area of res at 45k before rolling.  Nice flag set up though.  If i was in my youth, I'd be looking to start leveraging up at the first loss of momentum after this advance, especially if it pops 45k with strength.  The next step should be off a cliff. 

Perhaps were just waiting for some news...

While, this market does have my attention...I'm just watching here at the moment.  Although, to me...and I've been here many times...this feels like a "bit of calm" before the storm.

Liked that picture yesterday Doc, you're aging well.  Actually...appreciated the shot of the ocean more...smile.  She's my first love.  I used to live in Florida if you recall.  Daytona, Orlando, and Jax. 

I'm thinking...I might just buy me a yacht and sail off the coast for the next decade if I can clear up these health problems. 

It's been in the back of my mind for awhile now. As large of a "single-handed" rig that I can find and off I go.

The CoinGuy

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Continuing health care comments (national healthcare advantages) from yesterday's thread ...

 

I fractured my hip last September and apart from the initial ambulance fee ($500) the overnight stay in the local hospital, the air ambulance to a city hospital, 6 days hospital stay, the actual operation, ongoing medication, 3 months physio with walking aids etc and video consultations with specialists were all absolutely free.  Way to go...

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29 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said:

The time frames you're dealing with are too short for me to get a grasp of. 

That's just here. This is a tiny sliver of what I do, a keyhole view of the black box, so to speak. The focus of my work has always been intermediate to long term. Liquidity is the context, TA, is the execution.  The Stool is for the daily patterns that inform us as to the building blocks of the big picture technically. Good for day traders, and for LT subscribers.

The Stool is to show, Liquidity Trader is for the dough

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

That's just here. This is a tiny sliver of what I do, a keyhole view of the black box, so to speak. The focus of my work has always been intermediate to long term. Liquidity is the context, TA, is the execution.  The Stool is for the daily patterns that inform us as to the building blocks of the big picture technically. Good for day traders, and for LT subscribers.

The Stool is to show, Liquidity Trader is for the dough

Thanks for the explanation Doc.  I do recall you doing some longer-term work, I think I even signed up for a 3 month sub once to check out your work.  You'll have to forgive me though...It's been awhile since I've been here and frankly...I'm having a hard time recalling the way things are around here, but it's all slowly coming back.  A bit of ol's timers perhaps.  😁.

Read an interesting article this morning...

Life’s Preference for Symmetry Is Like ‘A New Law of Nature’

Good day gentlemen...

The CoinGuy

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38 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said:

Liked that picture yesterday Doc, you're aging well.  Actually...appreciated the shot of the ocean more...smile. 

Thanks. I work at staying healthy.

The background is the Mediterranean Sea, along the Promenade des Anglais in Nice, one block from my current apartment. Finally getting to live here is my dream come true. My favorite of the 120 or so places I have visited in Europe. And I loved 110 of them. 😁

I have an accepted offer on an apartment in my favorite neighborhood, Place du Pin, at the beginning of the Rue Bonaparte pedestrian zone. If all goes well, I'll be moving in at the end of April. 

Gotta close on my house sale in FL first. That's scheduled for tomorrow. Did I top tick the market there? Maybe. But at the same time, I may have bought the top here too.

What difference does it make? It's a swap, with a slug of leftover cash and my carrying cost here will be 70% less than in FL, thanks to far lower RE tax, insurance, and monthly fees.

On the other hand, I assume that my income tax rate will be slightly higher here than in the US.  I'll also 

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That's beautiful Doc.

Sooner or later you've got to spend the money anyway...or lose it...cause none of us are taking it with.  I myself looked around a few years back and thought long and hard about that very topic.  As you know...a few brushes with death and those topics come to mind, often. 

Hence...I'm buying a boat and spending the rest of my days at sea.

I just turned 54 on the 11th.  Hopefully...I've got plenty of good years left.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

I'm just going to park these here...

I made this chart up a week or two ago.  I posted it briefly then pulled it after our discussion on multiple topics in one post.  I'm going to go ahead and put it up again.  In the different areas I'm monitoring...I think there might be a little work left to accomplish...but now isn't the time to be asleep at the helm.

285384823_SLVvsBTCupdated.thumb.jpg.7166d516c94ba91fa21aaa3388cd4cc6.jpg

I'm going to add this little chart below...it's a simple chart but it should get my point across.  You know...I cursed having a photographic memory until I started in on technical analysis.  After all these decades I have every formation(and all of their variations) literally burned into my mind.  It's like deja vecu on a daily basis.  At any rate, I should get to the point.  The chart below here takes off where the top chart of the SLV ends.  The bottom of the first crash.  Then there's a nice long sideways consolidation that takes place.  I'm watching the patterned behavior of the formation in SLV vs. BTC and it's getting interesting.  Inversions are a sign of validity to the pattern for me. 

Again...interesting...because I am seeing this same behavior in multiple sectors.

 

1436345404_SLVToppingPatternvsBTC-UpdateMarch242022.thumb.jpg.57ff2a502e1c7d339163ccc5de56eb6c.jpg

"Never discount simplicity" is what my teacher used to tell me...repeatedly.  Smile...

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Thanks. I work at staying healthy.

The background is the Mediterranean Sea, along the Promenade des Anglais in Nice, one block from my current apartment. Finally getting to live here is my dream come true. My favorite of the 120 or so places I have visited in Europe. And I loved 110 of them. 😁

I have an accepted offer on an apartment in my favorite neighborhood, Place du Pin, at the beginning of the Rue Bonaparte pedestrian zone. If all goes well, I'll be moving in at the end of April. 

Gotta close on my house sale in FL first. That's scheduled for tomorrow. Did I top tick the market there? Maybe. But at the same time, I may have bought the top here too.

What difference does it make? It's a swap, with a slug of leftover cash and my carrying cost here will be 70% less than in FL, thanks to far lower RE tax, insurance, and monthly fees.

On the other hand, I assume that my income tax rate will be slightly higher here than in the US.  I'll also 

Awesome!

You went with the old port rather than the Liberation district - cost & availability? 

We got yummy fish nearby from the fish pirates:

https://www.poissonnerielespirates.com/

Totally jealous.

 

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Gold up 25, the ^HUI(and SLV)...struggling.

1394291478_Canyoustarttoseeityet....thumb.jpg.40ee85c00323b1cddc972abba8544829.jpg

I always instructed students to learn the behavior of an issue...and trade it against itself.  Each issue has multiple signatures, it pays to learn them.

Literally.

Here's the SLV...

241325461_HIHoSLVaway.thumb.jpg.4f555b1aa0327ee5d8d7c0108f123496.jpg

Best,

TCG

It's been a month...

1903042348_Itsbeenamonth....thumb.jpg.a1400c7a642525e5a45cd7566c45d1ab.jpg

oh..and...

Previous thoughts on those energy spikes.

292339155_NOHalfMeasures!.thumb.jpg.09303ecccf9523e8c0e107d40431718e.jpg

 

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5 hours ago, aussiebear said:

Continuing health care comments (national healthcare advantages) from yesterday's thread ...

 

I fractured my hip last September and apart from the initial ambulance fee ($500) the overnight stay in the local hospital, the air ambulance to a city hospital, 6 days hospital stay, the actual operation, ongoing medication, 3 months physio with walking aids etc and video consultations with specialists were all absolutely free.  Way to go...

I wish you a speedy and full recovery! 

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7 hours ago, DrStool said:

I wish you a speedy and full recovery! 

It was pretty speedy being as I live by myself and my siblings have other lives.  Not quite 100% yet but walking the dog and riding my bike and coping with a large garden. 😀

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