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Market Fartcalls 3/10/22


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Market technicians often use math in their work. Fartcalls are one aspect of that. They are repeating patterns in different time frames, usually after meals where fiber nachos are consumed. 

Here we see such a chart, and wonder if, on the repetition of this fartcall, will things come out the same? Another solid dropping as liquidity dries up? 

Here's how it looks on the 5 hour bars. 

tvc_5988d3b18ea2d2caf94b64c17907cb63.png

I recognize that the subtlety of this pattern may be too arcane to easily recognize, so let's zoom in on the usual one hour bars. 

We see that the biggest downtrends remain intact, but so does the 2 day uptrend that was beginning overnight yesterday when I made the "Beautiful Bottom" call at around 4:30 in the morning New York time. It was as obvious as those things get. Now we have a moment of truth where we find out whether this shortest of uptrends can hang on, or whether it goes the way of the right ears on the two previous face plant fartcalls. 

tvc_272c84b4e9c5b4e1513872648e371b08.png

Here at 11 AM in Europe, and 5 AM in NY, we're seeing a sport line convergence around 4245-50 being tested. If it breaks, the bears will have the ball. If it holds, bulls are still in charge.

Looking ahead to the first half hour of regular New York trading, 4245 will still be the key sport level. Between there and 4280 is the battle zone where the outcome will be uncertain. Above 4280, bulls will be in the driver's seat but it won't be easy going. There are multiple resistance lines every 10-20 points overhead that should be difficult to penetrate. 

Meanwhile, the big picture:

Gold Breaks Out of Massive Long Term High Base, Miners Surge

Fewer Picks Remain But Still 100% Short, With Gains

Why I Don’t Care that Short Term Indicators Are Bullish

Withholding Tax Surge in February was All Inflation

Liquidity With Eyes Glued to Ukraine

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THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR AND INFLATION

Now that inflation is raging.

As I predicted way back in March 2020.

I was reading chapter 2 of the Intelligent Investor.

The chapter on inflation just does not make the grade.

It needs to be rewirtten and expanded.

It does not address the issue of wealth trasfer via inflation from lenders to borrowers.  

A very important omission.

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Just got back from looking at apartments. This market used to be cheap. It's not cheap anymore. And anything nice gets snapped up as soon as it hits the market. 

I got a solid deal on my FL property yesterday. Priced it 8% above the highest comparable, and got a cash deal at my price. 50% more than it would have sold for a year ago. There is absolutely no inventory on the market in S. FL. Anything decent that comes on the market sells instantly. 

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53 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Just got back from looking at apartments. This market used to be cheap. It's not cheap anymore. And anything nice gets snapped up as soon as it hits the market. 

I got a solid deal on my FL property yesterday. Priced it 8% above the highest comparable, and got a cash deal at my price. 50% more than it would have sold for a year ago. There is absolutely no inventory on the market in S. FL. Anything decent that comes on the market sells instantly. 

Does it make you reconsider Nice? Is there better value still available in, say, Menton?

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Menton is more expensive. Cannes is about 10% cheaper. I prefer Nice. I just love the vibe here, plus it's gorgeous. So is Cannes of course. But Nice has the big city vibe that I love. Cannes is great, but a little pretentious. Full of itself. 

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Menton prices are all over the lot. More expensive in many cases because many apartments have spectacular views. Without a view prices are comparable to Nice. 

I don't know Menton at all. I know Cannes and Antibes pretty well. Not a fan of Antibes. Cannes would be my second choice. 

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The invasion of the housing snatchers

House prices now set by private equity.

Just as stock prices set by pe house prices now set by pe.

The FED has turned housing into an attractive investment for the PE crowd.

All funded by the money printer and the magic of the 30 year mortgage.

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