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Beautiful Bottom, Is It Padded? 3/9/22


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The ES S&P futures have formed a beautiful bottom here in Europe at 10 AM Central European TIme,  4 AM New York time.  It's a near perfect W with strong hourly oscillator patterns. A 2 day downtrend channel has been broken but the rub is that a 4 day downtrend channel remains in force. The ES needs to be above 4230 as of 10 AM in New York to break that channel. If it does, it could roll upwards quickly toward the next resistance zone of 4260-80.

On the other hand, if ES is below 4180 when NY opens, then there would be real potential for a crash. Breaking yesterday's low of 4142.8 would be the trigger for the beginning of a crash. The last line of defense for the longs would be 4108. 

Here's the one hour bars view. 

tvc_364ab70c91be0adb85cef09f21e561da.png

 

And the 5 hour bars. I don't know if you can see this subtle, imperceptible pattern here. 

tvc_4a38c2d435a87e36ff3733de8f180d9c.png

 

Meanwhile, the big picture:

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Why I Don’t Care that Short Term Indicators Are Bullish

Withholding Tax Surge in February was All Inflation

Liquidity With Eyes Glued to Ukraine

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