DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 Baron Rothschild famously said, Buy when there's blood in the streets after the Battle of Waterloo. But few seem to be taking that advice this morning. Perhaps it's because this war has only just begun, and there's a question whether any of us will even survive. In which case, it won't matter whether you are long, short, or in cash. And so we sit and watch in awestruck horror, and in our way, pray for peace and the victory of good over evil. There are no assurances. Meanwhile, the addicted among us will continue to trade, and I will continue to post my observation on those lines here. A 2-3 day cycle projection of 4245 was exceeded overnight on the ES, S&P futures. But there's no sign of an upturn yet in this look at the 30 minute bars. Cycle oscillators are flatlining in deeply negative territory, a sign of trending. They would need to get back above zero to confirm an upside reversal even for the 2-3 day cycle, let along anything bigger. Meanwhile, the 5 day cycle projection points to around 4200-4210. The initial measured move price target of this hourly top pattern breakdown is around 4185. With this mornings weakness, a second neckline has been broken, with an implied target of 4125. There's a multiple downtrend line support convergence at 4135 at the end of regular trading hours today that is another possible price magnet for today if the market breaks 4225. Below is the hourly bar chart. To signal an upside reversal of the 5 day cycle, the ES would need to be above trend resistance at 4265 as of the New York open. It would need to be above 4305 at the end of the day to signal that such a turn would be any more than a consolidation in this downtrend. On the other hand, a drop below 4233 should trigger downside acceleration. Below 4165 would suggest a possible crash. Meanwhile, the big picture: Fewer Picks Remain But Still 100% Short, With Gains Why I Don’t Care that Short Term Indicators Are Bullish Withholding Tax Surge in February was All Inflation Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead Liquidity With Eyes Glued to Ukraine If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 Buttcoin (BTC) is the preferred choice for money transfer of Russian oligarchs, money launderers and other criminals the world over. As such, it has enjoyed renewed popularity, settling into a trading range over the past two months. Is that range a bottom, or a consolidation in a downtrend? I vote for the latter. A 6 month cycle projection still points to 28,000, and a 1 year cycle projection points to 20,000. At the same time, the breakdown of the massive top pattern has a conventional measured move target of 12,000. As of March 1 - Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead. Update tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 The euro, meanwhile, is crashing. It has broken a short term cycle projection of 108.60. As of this morning it has broken trend support at the same EUR/USD level. If that's not reversed within the next half day or so, this could get much worse. 108.60 is also the level of a 21 year support trendline in March. If the euro ends the month below this, then the conventional measured move target of 86 derived from the massive top breakdown would be doable. In the meantime, the next major support level below this is 1.037. As of March 1 - Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead. Update tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 Gold Bouillabaisse measures to 2160. ©Potatohead 2022 No rights reserved. Here's a monthly chart going back 21 years. It doesn't get much more bullish than that. March 1 - Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead. Subscriber update tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 day downtrend broken but resistance at 4300-4310 still needs to be cleared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 I guess that this is because Russia has offered these bogus terms for ending the war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 Interesting. Weak start to 5 day cycle up phase, that may be up in name only. Note how the second trendline has held so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 3 hours ago, DrStool said: Gold Bouillabaisse measures to 2160. ©Potatohead 2022 No rights reserved. Here's a monthly chart going back 21 years. It doesn't get much more bullish than that. March 1 - Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead. Subscriber update tomorrow. love it!!!!🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 A LESSON IN AUTOCRACY Investors are getting a valuable lesson in autocracy. Autocrats don't care about the financial bottom line. They only care about the power bottom line. Investors are expendable cannon fodder in their war for power. The only property rights an autocrat acknowledges are their own property rights. That's why there is so much capital flight from such countries. That's why returns appear so attractive in such countries. The higher return is in fact an asset confiscation insurance premium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 Treasuries aren't such a safe haven today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 5 day cycle projection still looks 4200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 The breakdown of this pattern now has a conventional measured move target of 4100-4110 today or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 And they bounced right off that channel line like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 It's the 13th anniversary of QE as I count it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 Just sitting on this trendline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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