DrStool Posted February 25, 2022 Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 I'm 71 years old. I'm an atheist. I don't believe in prayer. I am also a pacifist. But a time comes when it is necessary to support the resistance. Whether it be against the outrageous Russian attack on Ukraine, or the bullish attack on 4300 on the ES, S&P 500 futures. The Russians are attacking Ukraine on all fronts. The bulls are simultaneously defending and attacking the S&P 500 on one front. It is a zone of both support and resistance. The battle is under way. The outcome will determine whether a massive top pattern is completed or not. If it is, the implications for those holding stocks long would be sobering. In fact, they already are. From what I observe, a failure to break down now, another rally that fools the majority now, will only delay the inevitable. The red zone is the battle zone. The upper line of that zone is 4295. That's the resistance level to watch today. If it holds, then we look to the lower line for support. That's around 4212. As you know, support and resistance can be penetrated and stretched before they break. We need to see a daily close above or below the range before we can be confident that either a new short term uptrend has begun, or the current short term crash trend is confirmed. Here we focus on the day to day. For that, we normally use the hourly bars on the ES. While the sharpest downtrend channel has been broken, others remain intact. The ES would need to be above 4260 at the New York open to break the next downtrend. There is not a clear uptrend channel yet. The one I have drawn is an educated guess. It suggests that trend support lies where multiple trendlines and support levels converge around 4225. If the market doesn't bounce from around this level by the 6-7 AM hour in New York, then this channel doesn't exist. It would suggest that the bearish trends are still very much in force. There's no 5 day cycle high projection yet. The 2-3 day cycle projects to around 4330. But if the ES has an hourly close below 4225, then I think we can safely discard that target. For now, which is around 4:30 AM in New York, 9:30 in London, 10:30 here in Nice and the rest of Western Europe, and 11:30 AM in Kiev, the hourly indicators are still in a bullish configuration, and the Russians are still on the attack in Ukraine. But the resistance is preparing itself to fight back. For the big picture see: Crash is Now a Coin Flip Fourteen New Shorts, No Buys Primary Dealers Are STILL Positioned WRONG! Gold Breakout Points To More, Miners Swing Picks Look Good If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 My interest in the price of the euro relative to the US dollar is personal, since I happen to live in France now, and my income comes in the form of US dollars. Whether I earn them or not is a judgment for you to make. But one way or another, they end up in my bank account as dollars, and I have to convert them to buy euros, whether to buy us this day my daily baguette, or an apartment to house me for the rest of my life. So, I'm trading the euro whether I like it or not, either passively by doing nothing, or actively, by buying and selling at appropriate chart levels. Maybe a few other expats and assorted degenerate currency traders might have an interest in this as well. If not, that's ok. Because I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it. People like me. At the moment, I have a short term cycle projection of 1.105. That's also a trend support area a few days hence. The one year cycle projection however, looks lower, maybe 1.06. So, it seems that I should just hold on to my US doodahs for now, transferring only what I need to spend on a daily basis. I'll look at that 1.105 area as a place to take a significant position if the daily patterns play out in the right way there. Meanwhile: Gold Breakout Points To More, Miners Swing Picks Look Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 The Trend is Your Friend, Treasury Market Edition Yields are going higher, and short term money rates are going higher. The Fed must either rubber stamp the move in the 13 week bill, or appear to have no control over rates. The Fed doesn't control rates directly, by waving a magic wand and pronouncing, "Abra cadabra, rates go up!" And poof, rates go up. The Fed controls rates by increasing or decreasing the supply of money, relative to the demand for credit. The 700 pound gorilla of credit demand is the US Treasury. When it demands mass quantities, the Fed must either supply it, or the price of money, whose foundation is T-bill rates, rises. The Fed has been cutting QE, its purchases of Treasuries, and is reducing those purchases to zero in a few weeks. It is reducing the supply of money. The US Treasury is still demanding money. T-bill rates have been rising for two months already as a result. The Fed will follow the trend of T-bill rates, and rubber stamp the market as it trends higher. When the Fed announces these rubber stampings, the market will zoom along as if following the Fed, but in fact, the trend has already begun. It is the egg, and the Fed is the chicken. Cluck cluck cluck. Primary Dealers Are STILL Positioned WRONG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 Crypto's massive rally in the last 24 hours hit a 10% gain. But it doesn't look so huge on the chart. It's just a function of the illiquidity of these "markets" in imaginary money. I still see lower cycle projections on BTC. They're moving around a lot, but they're still pointing materially lower as the cryptos all trend inevitably in the direction of zero. That's a given because the supply of cryptocurrencies is increasing daily, and is, in fact, unlimited. Demand, however, is limited. When this gigantic head and shoulders pattern breaks down, the measured move target will be -7000. That's negative 7000. Meanwhile, gold is going the other way. Its supply is limited. You can hold it in your hands. And it's shiny. Gold Breakout Points To More, Miners Swing Picks Look Goo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 The uptrend channel is now somewhat validated, a little narrower than I first had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 25, 2022 Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 THE DEFICIENT MARKETS HYPOTHESIS So Russian bonds drop 50%. How does the Efficient Markets Hypothesis explain that away. Clearly the market was betting on peace....and got it wrong. There was clearly no discounting by the bond market of the clear and present danger of a war. THE EMH should be replaced by the DMH. In deficient markets asset prices cannot and do not discount the future or current infornation accurately. 1/ Future information is inherently unknowable and thus cannot be discounted to determine current asset prices. 2/ Even where information is known i.e. current information.... it is "Interpreted" by current actors to determine current asset prices. The "Interpretation" can be very very faulty. The interpretation depends on existing investor biases. Thats why there is so much financial propaganda...to effect the biases...to effect the interpretation of information.....and thus effect the prices of assets...stocks ...bonds...whatever. 3/ Asset prices are constantly changing because future information is constantly becoming current information and is being measured and interpreted to determine asset prices. Or we can look at this as a QUANTUM FIELD effect. Future prices are determined by fluctuations in the future information field (FIF) The future information field interacts with the Price/Time field to create fluctuations in price over time...ie. a price chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 And current quantum field theory shows that the downtrend is broken and hourly oscillators are getting more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Jimbo said: THE DEFICIENT MARKETS HYPOTHESIS So Russian bonds drop 50%. How does the Efficient Markets Hypothesis explain that away. Clearly the market was betting on peace....and got it wrong. There was clearly no discounting by the bond market of the clear and present danger of a war. THE EMH should be replaced by the DMH. In deficient markets asset prices cannot and do not discount the future or current infornation accurately. 1/ Future information is inherently unknowable and thus cannot be discounted to determine current asset prices. 2/ Even where information is known i.e. current information.... it is "Interpreted" by current actors to determine current asset prices. The "Interpretation" can be very very faulty. The interpretation depends on existing investor biases. Thats why there is so much financial propaganda...to effect the biases...to effect the interpretation of information.....and thus effect the prices of assets...stocks ...bonds...whatever. 3/ Asset prices are constantly changing because future information is constantly becoming current information and is being measured and interpreted to determine asset prices. Or we can look at this as a QUANTUM FIELD effect. Future prices are determined by fluctuations in the future information field (FIF) The future information field interacts with the Price/Time field to create fluctuations in price over time...ie. a price chart. And that's a WSE post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted February 25, 2022 Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 Martin Shkreli owes the Securities and Exchange Commission more than $1.39 million and is permanently barred from serving as a public company officer or director for his participation in “multiple” securities fraud schemes, a federal judge in New York said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 25, 2022 Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 It's best to always remember that old stock market nostrum: buy death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 2-3 day cycle projection 4345. 5 day cycle projection 4350. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 Russian warship, go fuck yourself. The last declaration of a brave Ukrainian soldier about to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 day cycle projection 4360. Hitting trend resistance here. Hourly oscillators still bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted February 25, 2022 Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 What happened at 2:15 PM EST yesterday? >: other that all US indexes going vertical since...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted February 25, 2022 Report Share Posted February 25, 2022 UFB. So now we know that what's required for indices to reach launch-velocity and escape from the planet's surface is the ruthless sacking of a European capital whose citizens aspired to enjoy the benefits of freedom. Bodes ill: the market are like rats fleeing a ship, knowing that this all is going to get much worse, and it's better to take its chances out in the cold dead vacuum of space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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