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No Joy in Bearville 2/24/22

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I just feel sad for my friends in Ukraine. When I lived in Warsaw until the end of January, I was just 125 miles from northwestern Ukraine, which borders Poland along the southern half of its Eastern Border. 

I feel sad for my friends in Poland, and I worry for their safety too. 

I feel sad for the world. 

I feel sad for US! 

You know how I love to joke around.

Not today. 

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This is a 4 hour bar chart of the 24 hour ES S&P 500 futures . The breakdown of this head and shoulders pattern measures to 3800. Yesterday I wrote that I thought it could get there this week. I'll stick to that forecast. 

There's an even bigger pattern of the overall bull to bear market top covering the past 8 months that measures lower. Whether that target would mark the end of this first leg of a major cyclical and secular bear market is too early to project. I'll save the long term analysis and outlook for Liquidity Trader

For the day to day, which is our focus here, from the hourly view of the ES I derive a 5 day cycle projection of 4050.

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For the big picture see:

Crash is Now a Coin Flip

Fourteen New Shorts, No Buys

Primary Dealers Are STILL Positioned WRONG!

Gold Breakout Points To More, Miners Swing Picks Look Good

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The market has bounced and will try to form a low around the convergence area of multiple trendlines at 4110-4125. A short bounce this morning would normally dissolve into a lower low. I would still look for that 5 day cycle projection of 4050. 

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Flight to safety in crapto currencies today. Safety, aka cold hard US dollars. 

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I stick with my analysis that, because of the unlimited, endless, infinite supply of new cryptos flooding the market all the time, eventually all crypto will gravitate toward a value of zero. BTC will be the bellwether. 

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Some folks razzed me when I suggested at the beginning of the year that the best investment strategy overall was cash, or short if you're allowed. Many money managers aren't permitted to go short. Many investors are stuck in plans that can't short. That's too bad.

But crypto is absolutely the last place in the universe that I'd speculate in. It's only use is money laundering, and crime fighters are catching on about how to crack that.

In recent weeks I have continuously upgraded my outlook on gold, and on mining stocks, adding a bunch to my chart pick list. They're doing well.

 

 

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Flight to Safety Pt. 2. The Knee Jerk Reaction

Since time immemorial, in other words ever since there's been a US Treasury market, whenever there's a world crisis, professional investors have always sought the "safety" of US Treasury securities.

I've been warning that that's a really bad idea for the past 18 months. OK, there might be a trade here if the 10 year yield dips below 1.85 in yield. But it would be short lived.

tvc_a0e45fa8aa8ab47de3e334c598b005ee.png

Buying Treasuries now is still a really, really bad idea.

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Here's a monthly chart of euros in US doodahs. I'll zoom into the daily bars when it gets to around 1.09 and buy half a loaf when the timing looks propitious. The rest will depend on how the bounce plays out. 

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For those unaware, I live in France, spending geuros, but I earn my living in US doodahs. So I need to pay at ton see own. 

Which means that I'm aware that no one here gives a flying crap about this. 

What?

You think I do this for you???? 😁

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26 minutes ago, Jorma said:

Well were back to those one minute charts kind of days.  VIX is probably the best thing to watch.

Too many shakeouts at such a short time frame.

It's time to ride the trend. Go shorter time when the projections or key sport levels are hit. 

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Flight to Safety Pt. 2. The Knee Jerk Reaction

Since time immemorial, in other words ever since there's been a US Treasury market, whenever there's a world crisis, professional investors have always sought the "safety" of US Treasury securities.

I've been warning that that's a really bad idea for the past 18 months. OK, there might be a trade here if the 10 year yield dips below 1.85 in yield. But it would be short lived.

tvc_a0e45fa8aa8ab47de3e334c598b005ee.png

Buying Treasuries now is still a really, really bad idea.

On a relative basis this might be the worst bond performance during a stock market air pocket since, well I can't remember.  The first few hours of Black Monday?

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They are trying to hold it together here at support but there are still no buy signals on hourly oscillators. This remains a very dangerous setup. If support breaks, it should go a lot lower today. 5 day cycle projection still looks around 4050. For now...

They need to clear 4167 to confirm a 2-3 day cycle low.

tvc_7d3344a9448a5bea13d793c993ffee08.png

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