DrStool Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 From the perspective of the 2 hour bars on the 24 hour ES S&P futures, it looks like it could be. But then again, there are multiple short term downtrend channels that have yet to be broken. And when bottoms like these drop out, the market can crash. Crashes are exceedingly rare events, but this is the type of setup that can spawn one. So we wait. Tick tock. Zooming in to the one hour bars, we can better see two levels that the ES must break to break the downtrend: 4340 and 4365. Failing that, the risk of a crash would remain in place. As of 3:10 AM New York Time, the hourly oscillators were on the buy side, and the 5 day cycle projection was around 4375. That suggests that the downtrend will be broken. Clearing 4365 would set up a new short term uptrend. The initial target would be the resistance convergence around 4385-95. Meanwhile, the big picture: Crash is Now a Coin Flip Fourteen New Shorts, No Buys Primary Dealers Are STILL Positioned WRONG! Gold Breakout Points To More, Miners Swing Picks Look Good If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 IS THIS THE BOTTOM Might be a bear market rally...much more likely. But its not THE bottom. Visa and Mastercard selling for 40 tImes earnings. These stocks need to halve. Call back when they sell for 15-20 PE. This is the 70's Show. A multi year inflationary event. A cornucopia of soft default to bail out all the debtors. The inflation will ravage wages and depress consumption. Bonds are for bagholders. Not THE bottom yet. Energy and commodities the place to be. And we still have to go through the whole tawdy charade of the the FED "raising rates" and then going back to printing to save the day for real asset prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Up agin' it now. If it drops below 4320, take your seats and buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 I think Joe is hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 And the instant I wrote that the market stopped and reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Reverse quantum mechanics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Yeah, I think Joe is hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreakOut Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Classic phrasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 THROWING BILLIONS AWAY I realy dont get the RRP Sure its an ARK. But its a leaking ARK...the 8% CPI every year. At 2 Trillion thats $160 Billion a year in real value the depositors are throwing away. Much better off hiding out in the short term debt of some low inflation country of even in houses. Perhaps the FED can offer a residential REIT allternative. If the ARK fund is a house made of straw then the RRP is an ARK made of wood. What is needed in an ARK made of bricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 38 minutes ago, Jimbo said: THROWING BILLIONS AWAY I realy dont get the RRP Sure its an ARK. But its a leaking ARK...the 8% CPI every year. At 2 Trillion thats $160 Billion a year in real value the depositors are throwing away. Much better off hiding out in the short term debt of some low inflation country of even in houses. Perhaps the FED can offer a residential REIT allternative. If the ARK fund is a house made of straw then the RRP is an ARK made of wood. What is needed in an ARK made of bricks. the sad part is that bricks do not float. We are trapped. hold cash lose purchasing power. hold assets risk loss of capital... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 I'd like to congratulate our PD friends who win todays and tomorrows auctions of $100bn of Treasury Notes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, potatohead said: the sad part is that bricks do not float. We are trapped. hold cash lose purchasing power. hold assets risk loss of capital... Makes everyone a bag holder.......how quaint sinister...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Second time in a week I had my house sold, and the deal fell through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted February 23, 2022 Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, DrStool said: Second time in a week I had my house sold, and the deal fell through. Wow. That’s too bad. Were they financing contingencies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2022 Came within a hair of breaking the triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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