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Is This the Bottom? 2/23/22

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From the perspective of the 2 hour bars on the 24 hour ES S&P futures, it looks like it could be. But then again, there are multiple short term downtrend channels that have yet to be broken. And when bottoms like these drop out, the market can crash. Crashes are exceedingly rare events, but this is the type of setup that can spawn one. 

So we wait. Tick tock. 

tvc_79a0594d4284b5523f7f75c5a38d3a52.png

Zooming in to the one hour bars, we can better see two levels that the ES must break to break the downtrend: 4340 and 4365. Failing that, the risk of a crash would remain in place. 

As of 3:10 AM New York Time, the hourly oscillators were on the buy side, and the 5 day cycle projection was around 4375. That suggests that the downtrend will be broken. Clearing 4365 would set up a new short term uptrend. The initial target would be the resistance convergence around 4385-95. 

tvc_2346de5af429fcff6f6248ca51d2b449.png

Meanwhile, the big picture:

Crash is Now a Coin Flip

Fourteen New Shorts, No Buys

Primary Dealers Are STILL Positioned WRONG!

Gold Breakout Points To More, Miners Swing Picks Look Good

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IS THIS THE BOTTOM

Might be a bear market rally...much more likely.

But its not THE bottom.

Visa and Mastercard selling for 40 tImes earnings.

These stocks need to halve.

Call back when they sell for 15-20 PE.

This is the 70's Show.

A multi year inflationary event. 

A cornucopia of soft default to bail out all the debtors.

The inflation will ravage wages and depress consumption.

Bonds are for bagholders.

Not THE bottom yet.

Energy and commodities the place to be.

And we still have to go through the whole tawdy charade of the the FED "raising rates" and then going back to printing to save the day for real asset prices.

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THROWING BILLIONS AWAY

I realy dont get the RRP

Sure its an ARK.

But its a leaking ARK...the 8% CPI every year.

At 2 Trillion thats $160 Billion a year in real value the depositors are throwing away.

Much better off hiding out in the short term debt of some low inflation country of even in houses.

Perhaps the FED can offer a residential REIT allternative.

If the ARK fund is a house made of straw then the RRP is an ARK made of wood.

What is needed in an ARK made of bricks.

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38 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

THROWING BILLIONS AWAY

I realy dont get the RRP

Sure its an ARK.

But its a leaking ARK...the 8% CPI every year.

At 2 Trillion thats $160 Billion a year in real value the depositors are throwing away.

Much better off hiding out in the short term debt of some low inflation country of even in houses.

Perhaps the FED can offer a residential REIT allternative.

If the ARK fund is a house made of straw then the RRP is an ARK made of wood.

What is needed in an ARK made of bricks.

the sad part is that bricks do not float. We are trapped. hold cash lose purchasing power. hold assets risk loss of capital...

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