DrStool Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 That's right, not Rollover Beethoven. I've used that too many times through the years. In honor of my 7 months of residency in Warsaw, just ended, I decided to honor the great Polish composer instead, with a slight misspelling in recognition of current market conditions. Having dispensed with that ridiculous explanation, let us now move on to the cacophonous concerto of the stock market and various other matters of great import, but little impact. As you can see from the zoomed out 5 hour bar chart on the ES S&P Futures, the Big Giant Head pattern has grown a pigtail on the side of its head. Whether it is the left side, the right side, or the wrong side, is a matter of your chart perspective. I will leave that to you. Because here, we are only interested in the short term intraday or two vibrations. For the longer term outlook- Beware! The Market Has Followed My Script What we can see from this chart is that the Big Giant Head has become part of a big triangle pattern. Triangles by their nature are inconclusive patterns, implying neither upside nor downside breakouts. Often, the just trickle out the tip. But if they do break out, one way or the other, particularly around 3/4 or less of the way to the tip, they usually trigger a big move. So be prepared for that. One thing is for sure. All of the gyrations and fireworks in recent days have not been able to penetrate the vast area of overhead resistance which I believe is a bull market top, and bear market beginning. When we zoom in to our usual hourly view, we see both the Big Giant Head triangulating, and a smaller triangle within that triangle. It looks poised to head lower. If it gets below 4430, I think we'll be off to the races on the downside. It would need to get above 4490 to trigger an upside breakout all the way to 4515. I suspect that there's a lot of supply up above waiting to clobber any rally attempt. As for the liquidity side get the latest here: Fed Gets the Inflation It Wanted, But Wait There’s More! And I've been liking gold, and the mining stocks more and more in the past couple of weeks. Gold Set For Breakout, Mining Picks Turn Green If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 Following the news today while sucking my thumb in a fetal position. My thumb is not in the fetal position. I am in the fetal position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 I was out looking at real estate. What happened? Did war break out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 2-3 day cycle projection 4365-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 BULLARD: MARKETS MAY BE LOSING FAITH INFLATION WILL ABATE Do you think the Fed is panicking? or are they wanting to walk the market down? get rid of speculation and force the younger generation back into the work force? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 NASDAQ 50 DMA touching the 200 DMA - set to cross under tomorrow. Will it retest from the bottom and fail or succeed? The Fed sounded uncharacteristically panicked at the last meeting. Even the Fed's own research agrees that they are way behind according to the Taylor Rule. John Taylor himself was recently ripping on the Fed. They have created such a vast credit bubble they are terrified of the consequences of market determined interest rates and a normalized balance sheet. I think Bullard has honestly lost faith in the Fed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 5 day cycle projection now 4350. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 hours ago, sandy beach said: NASDAQ 50 DMA touching the 200 DMA - set to cross under tomorrow. Will it retest from the bottom and fail or succeed? The Fed sounded uncharacteristically panicked at the last meeting. Even the Fed's own research agrees that they are way behind according to the Taylor Rule. John Taylor himself was recently ripping on the Fed. They have created such a vast credit bubble they are terrified of the consequences of market determined interest rates and a normalized balance sheet. I think Bullard has honestly lost faith in the Fed. Bulltard was one of the perpetrators of the crime. Not just a bystander. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 I had a problem with the first broker and buyer in selling my house so on Monday told them to take a hike. Put the house back on the market on Tuesday, and already have 3 offers. All 3 are all cash deals. One at asking. One above. And I had raised the ask by 5 % when I realized initially that the market had already outrun my evaluation of where it was. I will break the record for my neighborhood, including larger, newer houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 One of the agents for one of the cash buyers said that they can pay cash and will go without a mortgage contingency, but will still seek a mortgage because the don't want to sell their stocks now because the market is down so much. I laughed, bit my tongue and said to the agent, " We don't want to go there, because we're real estate experts, not stock market experts." Then I hung up, went to the bathroom, vomited and shit myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 My house will sell for 59% more than it was worth a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 All cash. We are in hyperinflation. And the Fed is about to choke the chicken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, DrStool said: My house will sell for 59% more than it was worth a year ago. Congrats....top ticking the market again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 saw this... This is one of the most underappreciated stats at the moment: Some 1.543 million homes are currently under construction (single- and multi-family units), the most since 1973 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted February 17, 2022 Report Share Posted February 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, DrStool said: One of the agents for one of the cash buyers said that they can pay cash and will go without a mortgage contingency, but will still seek a mortgage because the don't want to sell their stocks now because the market is down so much. I laughed, bit my tongue and said to the agent, " We don't want to go there, because we're real estate experts, not stock market experts." Then when I hung up I went to the bathroom and vomited and shit myself. That is scary....The old saying when stocks go down. They are a good buy.then good bye stocks, good bye house, good bye cars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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