DrStool Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 Good morning from Nice, France. Today is day one of the world famous Nice Carnaval, a 16 day party that engulfs the center of this gorgeous town in the heart of the Cote D'Azur, the French Riviera, and my first as a resident of France. It shouuld be fun. Meanwhile, Wall Street's party looks as though it has ended, with partiers heading for the vomitorium, to disgorge the fruits of their years of excess consumption. In the very short run, the daily squiggles we watch here at the Stool, things are looking up. The 5 day cycle low appears to be in place. 4460 looks like a solid sport level. The price pattern over the past 24 hours sets up as a base, with the top line around 4495. Clear that, and the base breakout would have a measured move target of 4530. First they need to break the downtrend channel, whose top line is now around 4515 as of 7-8 AM in New York. That drops to 4505 at the open of regular trading. If not cleared, then we have a possible crash setup. If cleared, the next target aside from the measured move, would be a band of resistance around 4530-40. The purple line, by the way is Buttcoin (BTC). For months, it was leading the market. As soon as I noticed, it stopped doing that. Mofos. For the big picture this week: Raggedy Market Has Ambitions Meanwhile, we had YABO, yet another breakout, in bond yields yesterday. The 10 year crossed the Rubicon at 2%. It surged a little past that, but has now pulled back. 1.935 is yield support today. If they stay above that, this uptrend will remain extraordinarily painful for bond holders, who are being robbed both by inflation, and by capital loss. Those that are leveraged are facing Dante's Inferno, and the margin man leg breakers with tire irons in hand. Chart resistance in the very short run is around 2.085. And if they break that, then we'd be looking at 2.25. That'd leave a stain in the pants of bond longs, not to mention maybe break a few Primary Dealers. They'd have some huge losses. Oh the humanity. Get the rest of the story here: Fed Gets the Inflation It Wanted, But Wait There’s More! Meanwhile, Gold continues to try our patience. Common sense says that this should end well for gold bugs. But cold eyed analysis says, "Eh, I'm not sure." We'll see. This chart looks slightly constructive. But we won't know for sure until it breaks out. If it does, it has a nice base that should support a big move. Of course, the same holds true if it breaks down. I do have 7 buys on from the gold stock swing trading screens. And I set out what to look for to show us the way here: Waiting for Gold Oh I live in Europe and earn my living in dollars. I will soon be buying a home here, having just sold my Florida property. So when to move the money, and when to hedge my income, are always on my mind. The doodah/geuro price hangs in the balance here. It's a question of relative tightness. Who will be tighter Lord Jaysus, or Madame Lagarde. If this thing breaks through 1.15, I need to get long geuros in size and fast. If it drops under 1.135, I'll stay in doodahs. Meanwhile, if you're looking for swing trade ideas in stocks, short or long, check this out. Patience, Patience! Grrrrrr…. The system kept us on the sidelines for the past two weeks, which was probably a good thing, because the market has been a meat grinder. If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just to be clear, the Fed doesn't set interest rates. The market sets rates based on the supply of money vs. the demand for it. The Fed follows, while pretending to be in control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 Top of the channel again. Big picture . Raggedy Market Has Ambitions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 53 minutes ago, DrStool said: Just to be clear, the Fed doesn't set interest rates. The market sets rates based on the supply of money vs. the demand for it. The Fed follows, while pretending to be in control. So the RRP rate and the excess reserve rate is 0.5%? Won't market rates fuel an exit from RRP? Aren't we there now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 It's hilarious that everyone says the Fed is going to set interest rates higher but the only interest rate they set are the ones they pay to the banks. As if? Right? Would they really raise the RRP rate? I guess it would be a way to keep the money locked away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 WHY ARE BEAR MARKETS LIKE GARDENERS Because they get rid of the weeds but leave the roses, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 What swing trader wants to go into this weekend long?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 a Masochistic trader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 thar she blows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 British advises its citizens to get out of Ukraine. Reports that Putin has told his generals to prepare the invasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 From the daily mail........ Everyone is "getting tough" .......whether its the Canadian Truckers and the Putin Invasion........ Ontario declares state of EMERGENCY: Freedom Convoy drivers can now be fined $100,000, jailed for a year, have their trucks seized and licenses revoked after Biden urged Trudeau to get even tougher https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10501225/Just-three-days-honking-ban-Ontario-brings-draconian-rules-Freedom-Convoy-truckers.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10503325/US-believes-Putin-DECIDED-invade-Ukraine-invasion-week.html Who's playing in the Super Bowl........? >: Only one of those articles is actually on the front page......Hint, the Truckers...... >:: @Nick Schifrin PBS is twitting the Russian/Ukraine "reports from "sources". PBS.......... Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 If nothing else, something is up with Texas Tea....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Jorma said: So the RRP rate and the excess reserve rate is 0.5%? Won't market rates fuel an exit from RRP? Aren't we there now? Shockingly, hasn't happened yet, but it certainly should. Holders like to be in Fedbucks. It's like having paper money in the vault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 I wasn't paying attention for an hour. What happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 As you can see they are bouncing off the 4420 sport level. The 5 day cycle projection is 4400, but the measured move target of the breakdown of the top pattern at 4450 is 4310. I'd venture to say that it will reach that on the same day that 4420 breaks. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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