DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 But will it work this time? The overlay of hourly BTC on the chart of the ES, S&P futures, shows time and again that BTC leads the US stock market by an hour or more, and usually diverges by at least a day or two ahead of the market. Stocks follow BTC. On Friday BTC surged after starting to move up slowly on Thursday while stocks were declining. Stocks have yet to surge. If they do it again, blow me. Because it would be too easy to follow this model. Everybody will start doing it, and then it will stop working, as these things are wont to do. By the way, this correlation didn't just start. I looked at the chart going back many moons ago, and it has worked for some time. It will stop, but when? I don't know. Meanwhile, we have a broad uptrend working in the ES. They need to stay above 4480 as of 5:30 AM in New York to keep the channel intact. That rises to 4490 as of the NY open. The line is rising at about 10 points per hour. If it breaks, first target would be a test of the last low at 4447. If it lifts off, first target is 4540, and if they clear that, the measured move target would be 4630. I'm having a ball my first week living in Nice, which in reality is an Italian city in France. 😁 Ciao! https://www.instagram.com/200daysineurope/ Meanwhile, the big picture: Raggedy Market Has Ambitions Don’t Be Fooled, The Economy is Still Growing And Still Bearish Gold is Clueless Just Wait Till Next Week! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 7, 2022 Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 Patience, Patience! Grrrrrr…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 Will this interview I did 6 weeks ago stand the test of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 Bronto trying to get it going here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 LET'S get ready to rumble. One year cycle projection plausibly 2.35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted February 7, 2022 Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 Considering that 30 year mortgage rates follow the 10 year treasury yield with an R-squared of 0.98 and are currently pushing 4% we may be looking at an interesting outcome in real estate. Affordability is at the lowest since 2008. And random length lumber prices over $1K and rising isn't going to be helpful for supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 I have an offer on my house now that is 4% above my ask, which was at the top of where I thought the market value of my house would be. When I sold in 2005, I top ticked the market in my subdivision. Not sure here. I'm not trying to be a hero, just think it's prudent. And I want to buy over here in France, so I'm probably going to have a loss on that for a while if the market is topping out here. I don't think it is. Despite soaring prices, I still think that apartments on the French Riviera are undervalued relative to the cost of vacation homes in oceanfront cities in the US. At current interest rates on CDs and T-bills. having no monthly payment is a better investment than having a mortgage payment, or paying rent and investing the cash in CDs or T-bills. I sure wouldn't buy bonds to reach for yield. So I'll have more income and will buy more shit. Like more holiday rental apartments. 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 If you want a real bargain on the Med, look at Barfalona. Apartment prices crashed when they banned Airbnb and severely limited tourist rental licenses. An apartment without a rental license that would go for 250k now, goes for about 450k with a tourist rental license. You can actually get a beach neighborhood Barcelonetta 1 BR for around 200k. Nice little European pied-a-terre. And I suspect that they'll ease up on the rental restrictions when the market demands it. They're just passing up too much tax and fee revenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 6 hours ago, DrStool said: Meanwhile, we have a broad uptrend working in the ES. They need to stay above 4480 as of 5:30 AM in New York to keep the channel intact. That rises to 4490 as of the NY open. The line is rising at about 10 points per hour. If it breaks, first target would be a test of the last low at 4447. Bears repeating.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 Need to take out 4480 to get some downside momo gogo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted February 7, 2022 Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 I haven't been there since the mid-80's but it was really nice back then. The mountains were spectacular too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted February 7, 2022 Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 Everyone is moving to FL it's the most affordable place to retire in the us. the summer heat and humidity must suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 Uh oh. They're back in the channel again. Bullish oscillator patterns. If they start to move up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, BurntOnce said: Everyone is moving to FL it's the most affordable place to retire in the us. the summer heat and humidity must suck. I stopped spending the summer there in 2006. We started going to Canada. The humidity and the thunderstorms are soul destroying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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