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Bulls Gave the Inch, Bears Took a Mile 1/21/22

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First, let's begin with a few observations from yes turd day.  

21 hours ago, DrStool said:

Now this looks like a massive top, doesn't it. But not all patterns that look like tops are tops. In fact, as you know, for the past dozen years, all patterns are bullish, right? 

So I don't want to jump the gun here, but if this mofo breaks down below 4495, the conventional measured move price target would be around 4175. Wouldn't that be fun.

OK. Busted.   

21 hours ago, DrStool said:

If they don't clear 4595 today, another precipitous, maybe even thunderous, slide becomes likely. Above 4595, I'd look for a really big move. Possibly 4598, or even 4612. Then we'll see. 

Option A was selected. I think we got precipitous in the afternoon. But thunderous? That's still wait and see.  Let's have a look again at the 5 hour bar perspective on the 24 hour S&P fugutures aka, ES. This to me, seems like the most perfectly formed top pattern I can remember since 2007, or maybe 1987.  But first, we should get the obligatory return to the scene of the crime rally, which would carry the ES back to 4495, and maybe 4530. If they clear that, then we transition to a Rally the Fools the Majority phase. That would carry way up into the top pattern before running out of gas. 

But if 4525-30 holds, or heaven forbid 4595, then we get Armageddon. The next big trading sport level, 4510-25, would almost certainly trigger a bounce. If that subsequently goes, the next sport level would be another hundred down. At that point we'd be on a spiral staircase to hell. 

tvc_f217d53778da924d7f299bfa520aa4dd.png

I don't want to make this slightly longer view a regular feature here. Otherwise, why subscribe to Technical Trader, where I suggested to get short up the wazoo on Monday before the open?  Of course, I got shook out of a bunch of short positions from two weeks before. Mea culpa, I'm no trading genius, but I know how to make overly complicated charts that make you eyes glaze over. Some of them even result in profitable moves. 

For our hour view we see an accelerating decline which has begun another 5 day cycle up phase here overnight. Note that the low was not preceded by a higher low on the hourly oscillators. That presages another lower low, probably today, before they try again. But every try that meets with a lower high, just means that the end is more nigh. And that's no lie. Sigh. 

tvc_7d3270f77834ed5b8a1ea5c90b53143e.png

 

Meanwhile, the 10 year is getting a flight to safety bid. Whodathunk. Just remember, every rally in the Treasuries is a gift to those who hold bonds. But will they take advantage? Most will not. They'll just wait until the bonds mature. But if you're holding a bond fund, and you don't take advantage, I'll say kaddish for you.  

Back in the late 60s and 70s the brokers went ape shit selling new fixed income mutual funds and other crap to unsuspecting, naïve retail investors like my dad. Over the next 15 years, the stank of that crap killed a lot of small investors. No doubt, the lessons of history are long forgotten, and the same thing will happen again today. 

tvc_459a9879de973843ee3da158b4d7d587.png

 

Meanwhile, the buttcoin longs are sitting on the toilet with their heads between their knees trying to squeeze them out as fast as the can. But the opening for them to get out is small, with only tiny turds getting through. There's more to come. The stink will be awful, but I have no sympathy for anyone holding that useless crap. 

tvc_ef5f9038e169c132c9b6abf7f2835345.png

 

As for my darling, the EUR, its downtrend is deeply entrenched. Cycle and momentum indicators are buried at long term lows. As you can see, that doesn't necessarily mean a meaningful bounce ahead.

Trends tend to persist in currencies because they are tied more to relative monetary policy. If the Fed is tighter than the ECB, the doolah will tend mostly to rise against the EUR. So until Christine tightens that thing, I think I'm in good shape, earning my meagre living in doodoolars while residing in P eu ro land. 

tvc_8bdfa6cec66494bde38027bb19049c4e.png

 

Finally, what about the golden calf. Will Moses allow it to be carried along to the Promised Land, or will he force the Bugraelites to leave it in the desert.  So the question is, can we get just a little more upward curve here. That would set up a launch. Otherwise, if this thing drops back below 1750, it's back to the smelter. 

tvc_099ce39f508f54f0b68185f1424dec45.png

 

If you're into goldbuggery. I have a few Mining picks on the swing trade chart pick list that are looking mildly profitable. We've been picking our claims carefully, and they've been panning out well.  But boy, talking about requiring patience.   

Gold Positioned To Pop

And now (Paul Harvey voice) the rest of the story:

Getting Short Up the Wazoo

Still Looking for that Rigor Mortis Rally

Fed Will Administer Volckera to Cure Inflation Pandemic, and We’ll All Die

Wheels Are Moving in Slow Motion for the Top

 

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