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On the Fourth, They Popped the Cork 1/4/22

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They did it in the pre market. The ES fugutures broke out of a launchpad pattern at the top of the meggerphony. But just as quickly, they pulled back to the breakout. Nothing to see here. Yet. That's normal for a breakout. I think we'd need to see something below 4795 to start thinking about a failed breakout. 

Meanwhile, the 5 day cycle projection is around 4824. Hourly oscillators are slightly bullish but on the cusp. I can't get excited about any possible downside yet. The upside might have a percent or so if they clear 4825. Ho hum. 

tvc_523e2b5da36499d92eaa0ed31c859bda.png

 

Meanwhile, the big picture. 

When Boring Isn’t Bullish – Gold

It’s The Most Blunderful Time of the Year

Wheels Are Moving in Slow Motion for the Top

The Rigor Mortis Stock Market Rally

 

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THE BOND MARKET IS FAR BEHIND THE CURVE

So the 30 year goes above 2.

It should be trading above 10.

Based on 7% CPI and 3% real return.

The bond market is far behind the actual real reality point.

This is simply the market reality point (i.e.the price) starting to adjust towards the actual real reality point.

Remember the FED's massive intervention in the bond market via QE has been to impede and block this adjustment process.

If the FED does not allow this adjustment process to occur.

Then Bond funds will simply cease to exist.

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1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

THE BOND MARKET IS FAR BEHIND THE CURVE

So the 30 year goes above 2.

It should be trading above 10.

Based on 7% CPI and 3 % real return.

The bond market is far behind the actual real reality point.

This is simply the market reality point (i.e.the price) starting to adjust towards the actual real reality point.

Remember the FED's massive intervention in the bond market via QE has been to impede and block this adjustment process.

If the FED does not allow this adjustment process to occur.

Then Bond funds will simply cease to exist.

+1

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