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One More Day. Here We Go Again 12/30/21

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I thought I'd never say this, but the market is trying to break out again. 

Actually I didn't think I'd never say it, but I thought I try not trying to say what I didn't say that I'd never thought would happen. 

The point, I guess, is that this chart looks a lot like yesterday's. They still face resistance at 4806 on the ES, S&P fugutures, but they're a little further below the top of the meggerphone, now around 4820, heading for 4825 or so during regular NY trading hours. The hourly oscillators suggest that the attack on the first resistance level will probably be successful in generating a breakout. 

That's not guaranteed, so we'll watch what happens there. Might pull back and try again. Might go there and stick. We don't know. If the do pullback, it would only have bearish potential if it breaks down below this narrow range at 4778. They we might have something. Otherwise the bulls are just scrimmaging with themselves. 

tvc_3d33da3d15c3ecdd383662620c079acc.png

Meanwhile, the big picture. 

Holiday Wishes and Publication Schedule

Get Ready for a Slow Moving, but Perfect Storm

Gold Shows Every Sign of Doing This Now (and Forever)

Is It Time to Quit if Your Chart Picks Crushed the Market Last Week?

How to Tell When This Inconclusive Market Turns Dangerous

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13 hours ago, Jimi said:

Yeah. Nice! I've stayed in that neighborhood, with that view but further toward the sea end for about 4 months total. It's a wonderful neighborhood. The entire port is lined with restaurants and bars on all sides. The new tram terminus station is right there as you can see. 15 minutes to the airport. 10 minutes to the main train station. 

That said, two years ago, you could have bought that for 400k. 730 is way too high for a 3rd floor walkup in that building. In US terms, it's on the 4th floor. The ground floor is rez de chausee. The next floor is the first floor.  

It's at a high traffic, noisy intersection where several bus lines intersect, including the route 100 to Monaco for €1.50. 

And that building has a disco downstairs with outdoor seating under the arcade where people party until the wee hours. 

I think there are far better buys in this market. I wouldn't pay more than 500 for it, and only if you're ok with getting a workout every time you come home. For me, it's great. Old people like me need an excuse to exercise. But I wouldn't pay so much. And you need to be ok with a high energy location like that. Noise is a deal killer for me because I want to be able to open the windows when the weather is nice in Nice. 

If you are serious about looking, let me know. Meanwhile, here's a basic search of almost all the 2 BR apartments on the market now in the prime areas that I like best. I'm also looking a little north of the train station in the Liberation district, around Place General Charles De Gaulle, where there's a wonderful marketplace, and the South Station food court. It's a very trendy neighborhood and only 6 minutes to Place Massena on the tram. 

https://www.seloger.com/map.htm?searchareastype=0&projects=2&types=1&natures=1,2&[email protected]`F~QfYgJ|JxaAfSO|[email protected]\[email protected]@p^&bedrooms=2&rooms=3&mandatorycommodities=0&view=1&enterprise=0&qsVersion=1.0&m=search_refine-redirection-search_results

 

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The Department of Labor:

In the week ending December 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 199,250, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since October 25, 1969 when it was 199,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 206,250 to 206,500.
Regular continued claims dropped about 140K.
How has tax withholding been doing Doc?
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

WeeklyClaimsDec302021.PNG

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Quote December 4, 2021

The withholding data is the real deal. It continues to show the US economy growing rapidly. Inflation will continue to run very hot, and the Fed will remain under pressure to reduce QE. That showed up this week in Powell’s statement that the Fed will stop saying the bad word, “transitory” because people misunderstand what the Fed means by it.

Why It’s Big Trouble that Real Time Tax Data Shows Economy Still Growing Fast 

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Buttcoin is hanging in there. I can't get my mind around the inflationary potential of Crypto. I think it could be stupendous, but I don't know how exactly. Total Crypto is say $2.2 TN. What if it goes to $10TN in a year or two, and why wouldn't it? I just don't know.  And what would that mean for asset prices of every kind?  I just don't know.  

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2 hours ago, Jorma said:

Buttcoin is hanging in there. I can't get my mind around the inflationary potential of Crypto. I think it could be stupendous, but I don't know how exactly. Total Crypto is say $2.2 TN. What if it goes to $10TN in a year or two, and why wouldn't it? I just don't know.  And what would that mean for asset prices of every kind?  I just don't know.  

The supply of crypto is infinite. There are hardly any barriers to entry to new cryptos. All crypto will eventually regress toward zero.  

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