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When A Top is a Bottom in Disguise 11/17/21

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Look at this hourly chart of the ES S&P 500 fugutures. It's obviously a top, right?

tvc_71e451bf3c5c305f1b0561f38ae1f18c.png

 

Well, not so fast, cowgirl!

What if we just move the chart over and down a bit. Then what does it look like?

tvc_c8108b1a85bddc663da1dc2bed2c8ee3.png

Uh huh!

Now I'm not going to play pretend and act like I know which this is. I'll let the market tell us. It's pretty clear that if they don't break 4675 later today, this sucker is likely headed for the freakin' moon.  This top/bottom pattern would have a conventional measured move target of 4795 if it breaks out to the upside. 

I don't think it would get there today, but if my house can go up that much in a month, why not the stock market. 

Inflation, gone is my heart. Inflation, keeps us apart. Why talk to me.

After my podcast interview with Lindsay Williams of the faux Brit accent, I got a phone call from your friend and mine, Greg Fokker, who ripped me a knew one (sic) for not leveraging up in my old age. I decided that he was right. So I'm going to take all $50 in free cash to my name while I await the cash out from the sale of my multi-million dollar Florida, soon to be waterfront, manse, and I'm going to borrow free money from European banks, and run around Europe buying apartments in all the digital nomad hotspots. 

It reminds me of The Graduate.  Then it was "plastics." Now it's digital nomad apartments.

With plastic. 

Czesc and Dziękuję for the birthday wishes!  

7 hours ago, Jimi said:

Yes.

Happy birthday.

May it have been rich with... :unsure2: 

Polish sausage?

I will receive the blessing of the pierogis from a priestess of the Kuchnia. This is a sect of Polish grandmothers who have spent the decades since their formative years under Communism in silent toil and devotion to the familial ritual of dumpling perfection. No wonton, no gyoza, no kreplach, no ravioli or tortellini can know the spiritual perfection achieved by these priestesses, such is their years of secret prayer and devotion. 

Yea though I walk through the valley of the chopped onions simmered in bacon grease, I will fear no evil. 

Amen, and do zobacenia! 

For more on the big picture and elsewhere: 

Gold Breaks Out, Sets New Targets, Miners Move

Benefit of the Doubt to the Upside Until Proven Otherwise

The Fed Pulls The Plug, Macro Liquidity Cruiser Starts Its Turn

Buys and Sells in Balance in Swing Trade Screens

Why Jerome Powell Had a Frog In His Throat

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24,000 new positive tests in Poland today. Lowest testing rate in Europe implies far higher infection rate. 463 deaths, rising exponentially. Low vaccination rate means this country is headed for a stunning death toll. 

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All of Europe west of Belarus and Ukraine, except Portugal, is on Central European Time. 

Spain should be on GMT, but they're jackasses. 

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Although the summer of 74 was unbearably dull and a great time to be short. 

But the market had already been trending lower for 18 months. 

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Today I was walking in a big park here and came across a coffee cart. They're a lot more elaborate than back in the day when I had mine. Built in generator and a huge espresso machine, driven by bike power. I literally pushed mine out to the corner. Yes, I was a pushcart vendor! Coffee, donuts, and bagels.

At the end of the morning, I'd shut down, and by noon I'd be in the peanut gallery at Walston and Company, glued to the Bunker Ramo, pounding out quotes, pulling tear sheets, running to the ticker tape on Thursday afternoon when M1 came out. 

Pushcart coffee vendor by morning, hot young trader buying and selling 100 shares of EMI in the afternoon. 

In those days, the commission was more than the price of the stock. It didn't take long for Wall Street to take all your money. 

And still, all the big brokerage houses managed to fail anyway. 

Those were the days, my friends. We thought they'd never end. 

 

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