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4687 Is the Number 11/10/21

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That's the number to beat to break out of this horrendous downtrend that is killing stock values. Woe is me. 

This looks oddly familiar. Where have I seen this before?

tvc_81ceb953fa3a3972d4bb45b49aeb82c3.png

This is just for intrepid day traders. 

For more on the big picture and elsewhere: 

Gold Cycle Projections Hold Good News

Relentless Rally Reaches Likely Reaction Point

Swing Trade Screens Have Buy Side Surge

Why Jerome Powell Had a Frog In His Throat

 

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From the Department of Buttcoin Pops. AKA if you don't own it, it hurts. Even if it is a pus filled butt boil. 

I have some revisions to the cycle projections. The 9 month cycle projection moderated to 69,500. The 18 month cycle projection rose to 97.500. The measured move price target of the high base breakout is around 99,000.

tvc_94ff2d2cafc8ca9378fc59fd97dddfe4.png

Remember. As goes BTC, so goes the 10 year Treasury Yield, right? The rally in Treasuries looks like a gift horse, which you shouldn't look in the mouth, right?

tvc_a6c2c4449c9f52089d63e9236feba0ed.png

There's a reason Treasuries have rallied in the past couple of weeks. It's something very esoteric that few people have heard of or understand. It's called the "Law of SUPPLY" (and demand). When demand is constant, if supply is reduced, prices rise, and in the case of bonds, the other side of the coin: yields fall. 

Supply has been reduced over the past 10 days because they're running into the debt ceiling again, so there's been a big cut in issuance this month. Who's your daddy? The LAW OF SUPPLY. Trust me, there's more supply coming. When? When they lift the debt ceiling again. Run away! Run away, now!

And remember, it's not inflation, it's growth. Like the big ugly growth on Wall Street's ass. Think of the red line as a pus filled boil. And it's about to explode all over the bond market. 

image.png

Let me tell you! 

This thing is coming to a head! 

 

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They always tell us that monetary policy works with a lag. Who am I to argue. They're the experts.  The purple line is total Fed system credit. The other lines are various measures of inflation. 

image.png

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The USD is soaring against the EUR. 10 year yield exploding. Cryptos blowing the roof off. Stocks getting dumped. 

Gold breaking out.

Wait, what? 

That can't be right. Gold is breaking out? 

Must be an alternate universe. 

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EUR/USD measures to 1.10. Good for me. Well, except that I moved a chunk of USDs to PLN a month ago. Bummer. But that's ok. Still earning USDs. It's a hedge. 😁😁 

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